AN “alarming growth” in maritime casualties is being fuelled by an ageing global fleet with more than half of all safety incidents attributed to vessels over 20 years old.

The number of maritime casualties rose by 15% in 2024, according to classification society DNV’s latest annual maritime safety report that analyses Lloyd’s List Intelligence casualty data.

The latest annual data snapshot shows a significant spike in incidents last year, but it also confirms an established trend towards deteriorating safety standards across the industry over several years.

While the overall number of incidents declined by 5% between 2014 and 2018, the figure has now increased every year since.

“This is really quite alarming,” said DNV Maritime chief executive Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen.

“The Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows a clear correlation has emerged between an ageing global fleet and an uptick in safety incidents over the past two years… but a lot of these incidents are related to lack of maintenance, lack of inspection, and many of these events could also be related to seafarer skills and competence,” he told Lloyd’s List.

Elevated freight rates — largely driven by the rerouting of vessels and leading to a tonne-mile driven market — have led many shipowners to delay the scrapping of older vessels to maximise earning potential.

Combined with continued regulatory uncertainty that has delayed newbuilding decisions as well as significant sections of the older fleet disappearing into sanctioned trading within the so-called shadow fleet, the overall impact of an ageing fleet has been to increase safety incidents globally.

According to Ørbeck Nilssen, it is now essential that older ships are removed from the fleet.

“We need a recycling push now,” he said. “Every year that goes by, we are increasing the risk”.

Listen to Lloyd’s List talk to Knut Ørbeck Nilssen about the safety implications of an ageing fleet

DNV has warned that many vessels currently in service were designed for a different era, with different regulatory standards and technological capabilities.

“As these ships continue to operate beyond their intended lifespans, the risks associated with structural fatigue, outdated systems and limited compatibility with modern safety technologies increase,” the safety report explained.

The ballooning demographic of vintage vessels still in operation has exacerbated the trend towards growing safety problems.

More than half of the incidents in 2024 were attributable to vessels 20 years of age or older, with 41% of incidents for vessels in the 25+ age category. In contrast, 41% of incidents in 2014 came from vessels over 20 years old, with 32% coming from the 25+ age category.

The statistics also show that the growth in incidents in 2024 is mainly being driven by the older portion of the fleet. In real terms, the number of casualties rose by 358 between 2023 and 2024. Some 285 of these incidents came from vessels over 25 years old, representing 80% of all incident growth. Of these, 236 (83%) were attributable to machinery damage/failure.

Fire and explosion incidents rose by 42% in the past four years, with high rates in the passenger ferry segment a particular cause for concern inside class societies.

While the rise of the shadow fleet did not form part of the analysis, DNV has repeated its concerns regarding safety implications of old ships with minimal oversight performing dangerous operations.

“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand that a parallel fleet that is not subject to the normal safety governance is a significant risk,” said Ørbeck Nilssen.

“Nature doesn't care whether a vessel is a part of the dark fleet or it is part of the regular fleet and the same goes for the seafarers on board who are subjected to hazards,” he said.

While DNV is advocating a concerted industry effort to address the safety risks associated with an ageing fleet via immediate scrapping, Ørbeck Nilssen was less clear on how to remedy the inherent risk associated with the dark fleet.

“This is an industry problem, but it’s a problem that the traditional industry is not able to resolve as these vessels operate outside of the normal governance system,” he added.