SHIPPING is not a homogenous industry. There are good, bad and compliant businesses operating across a very broad spectrum of quality.

The same is true of the so-called dark fleet, which operates in shades of grey, where some are decidedly darker and dodgier than others.

As the industry gathered in Oslo this week for Nor-Shipping, the discussions inevitably turned to sanctions and what happens next.

Will the Europeans drop the price cap to $50 a barrel? Will the US lift sanctions — and, if so, how much of the off-white end of the grey fleet could find its way back into mainstream shipping?

Questions of quality and risk are going to require some forensic analysis of just how dark these ships have been over recent trades before anyone can restore their reputation sufficiently to re-enter mainstream trades.

At the darkest end of operations, the recent direction of travel has been ever further into the shadows.

The resurrection of long-dead vessel identities to create zombie tankers is not a new sanctions circumvention tactic, but it is getting increasingly sophisticated and difficult to spot. And it is becoming increasingly popular. The zombie fleet is growing.

As the US has applied maximum pressure, sanctions dodgers across the dark fleet value chain are coming up with ever-more complex wheezes to slip under the radar of those who are watching.

Governments are investing to stay ahead. The EU’s latest Ocean Pact unveiled today promised a new European drone fleet to be used alongside advanced sensors supercharged with AI for real-time monitoring of maritime activities.

But this is now an arms race, where every crackdown prompts a further evolution in response.

And the problem — as anyone who has watched a zombie film will know — is that it is very difficult to kill them off. They tend to just keep coming back.

Maximum pressure requires maximum vigilance.

If there is to be any hope of a selective re-entry of peripheral dark fleet players based on vessels’ ages, quality and trades, then there will need to be a frank discussion about how far into the shadows governments are willing to look.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List 

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