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NRF peak-season forecast remains subdued despite tariff-reprieve bounce

  • According to Descartes, US imports fell 10% in May versus April, with US imports from China slumping 21% — the sharpest monthly fall since the initial Covid lockdowns in March 2020
  • National Retail Federation expects US imports to rebound in June and July due to importers taking advantage of the tariff reprieve
  • Despite that bounce, NRF’s current June-October forecast is down 14% versus the same period in 2024 and down 1% versus May-October 2023

  • Analysis

The import numbers are starting to come in for May, and they’re ugly. The question now is whether the 2025 peak season can recover from tariffs. The latest forecast from the National Retail Federation is not encouraging

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