Red Sea traffic remains 60% lower than normal volumes
- Bab el Mandeb and Suez Canal transits within ‘new normal’ range
- Total traffic volumes unaffected by US-Houthi ceasefire agreement
- Owners and operators are returning to Red Sea voyages, but majority of industry remains cautious
The security dynamics in the Red Sea may have changed, but analysis of vessel-tracking data reveals this has done little to reassure the majority of those that diverted to the Cape of Good Hope in the early days of the crisis
TRAFFIC through the Red Sea chokepoints remains a far cry from normal levels, with last month’s US-Houthi ceasefire doing little to encourage owners and operators that have rerouted to resume transits.
In May, there were 971 passings of cargo-carrying vessels of more than 10,000 dwt — those most likely to be internationally trading — through the Bab el Mandeb, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. This is equivalent to 65.5m dwt.
There were 891 transits through the Suez Canal last month, or 67.9m dwt in tonnage terms.
These transit volumes are within the “new normal” range and 60% lower than pre-Houthi attack levels.
As analysts predicted at the time, the US-Houthi ceasefire that was agreed in early May did not spur a mass resumption of Red Sea voyages.
That is not to say there has been no return to the beleaguered shipping lane over the past several months.
Owners and operators started reviewing their stance on Bab el Mandeb transits after the now defunct ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was implemented in January.
This includes large companies that had been diverting from the area since the start of the crisis.
Egypt has been trying to persuade shipping lines that have been reluctant to restart Red Sea voyages that safe navigation through the Red Sea is possible and, in a bid to boost traffic, the Suez Canal Authority is offering a 15% discount in transit fees for containerships.
Data does not show any significant changes in containership transits through the Suez Canal in May, with 141 passings record.
The monthly average of boxship passings in the first quarter of 2025 was 152 transits.
