The week in charts: Red Sea remains 60% lower than normal | Hundreds of voyages to Iraq may be fake | Port congestion pushes up Asia-Europe rates
Lloyd’s List’s weekly showing of the data and figures behind our news, analysis and markets coverage
Red Sea traffic volumes unaffected by US-Houthi ceasefire; Nearly 400 tanker and LPG voyages to Khor Al Zubair in the first five months of 2025 were likely manipulated; Asia-Europe spot rates hit four-month highs; Imports to Los Angeles declined to just 355,950 teu in May
TRAFFIC through the Red Sea chokepoints remains a far cry from normal levels, with last month’s US-Houthi ceasefire doing little to encourage owners and operators that have rerouted to resume transits, reported senior risk and compliance analyst, Bridget Diakun.
In May, there were 971 passings of cargo-carrying vessels of more than 10,000 dwt — those most likely to be internationally trading — through the Bab el Mandeb, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. This is equivalent to 65.5m dwt.
These transit volumes are within the “new normal” range and 60% lower than pre-Houthi attack levels.
Origin unknown: hundreds of voyages to Iraq may be fake
Hundreds of voyages to Iraqi oil and gas terminals are potentially being faked using manipulated Automatic Identification System messages in an apparent effort to skirt US sanctions on Iran by concealing cargoes’ true origins, wrote maritime risk analyst Tomer Raanan.
A Lloyd’s List analysis of AIS data and satellite imagery found 92 tankers — mostly product, asphalt and chemical carriers — and liquefied petroleum gas carriers generated fake voyages to and from the port of Khor al Zubair in the first five months of 2025. That translated to 380 spoofed voyages, while another 396 were estimated to be genuine. Authenticity of an additional 12 voyages could not be verified due to insufficient data.
Port congestion pushes up Asia-Europe rates
Spot rates on the Asia-northern Europe trade have jumped nearly 50% since the start of last month, as port congestion continues to plague the route and drive up rates, wrote deputy editor, Linton Nightingale.
The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index shows rates per teu at $1,844 this week for rates from China to northern Europe, a rise of 10.6% week on week and a jump of just under 54% from the start of May.
Although unmoved this week, Drewry’s World Container Index shows all-in freight rates at $2,837 per feu, a rise of close to 30% since May.
Port of LA imports sank 19% in May vs April, with no major rebound expected
“It is very slow here,” conceded Gene Seroka, chief executive of the Port of Los Angeles, during a press conference, reported senior maritime reporter, Greg Miller.
Seroka did not sound optimistic that volumes would rebound strongly due to the tariff reprieve announced on May 12.
The official numbers for May were announced on Friday, and as predicted, they were very weak.
The port handled 355,950 teu in imports, down 19% from April and down 17% versus the five-year average for May. Last month’s imports came in 25% below the level forecast by the port before tariffs were announced.
Transpacific spot rate index suffers largest-ever weekly decline
There had been talk, not too long ago, of a supply chain “bullwhip” effect driven by the US tariff reprieve that could lead to port congestion as transpacific cargo demand suddenly snapped back. No one is talking about the bullwhip effect anymore, wrote Greg Miller.
The bookings rebound following the tariff reprieve has quickly run out of steam and overconfident carriers shifted too much capacity back to the transpacific lanes.
Asia-US spot rate indexes may have already peaked.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index assessed Shanghai-US west coast spot rates at $4,120 per day for the week ending Friday. That’s down $1,486 per feu or 27% week on week. This weekly decline is the largest-ever recorded for this route since the SCFI first began publishing in 2009, both in terms of feu per day and percentage.
