CO2 capture capacity could grow 28-fold by 2050
- Consultancy expects carbon capture utilisation and storage capacity to reach 2bn tonnes per annum by 2050
- But growth depends on uncertain policy support
- CCS must happen alongside emissions reductions to help slow climate change
Wood Mackenzie predicts the CCUS market will surge 28-fold by 2050, creating opportunities for CO2 carriers
THE global market for carbon capture, utilisation and storage is set to surge 28-fold by 2050, but still faces plenty of challenges, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The energy consultancy tipped capture capacity to reach 2bn tonnes per year, and storage capacity to reach 2.4bn tonnes per year.
It estimated the opportunity for investment in point-source emissions-linked capacity — capturing carbon straight from sources such as factory smokestacks — would reach $1.2trn.
WoodMac predicted the gap between capture capacity and storage capacity would narrow from nearly 50% in 2030 to about 20% by 2050.
But uncertain subsidies or other policy incentives may slow development, especially in the US and Asia-Pacific.
WoodMac said cross-border carbon transport and storage hubs would be crucial to scale up CCUS capacity, with Europe and Asia making up nearly half the global transport opportunity.
“Transporting carbon will require strong collaboration across governments in key regions,” WoodMac senior research analyst Fauzi Said noted.
“They must agree on several nuanced areas, including technical standards, interoperability, and carbon accounting and verification. Liability frameworks are also crucial.”
WoodMac’s Asia-Pacific CCUS lead, Hetal Gandhi, said $80bn had been committed for CCUS so far, mainly from the US, Canada and European countries. But more would be needed, especially in Asia beyond 2035.
WoodMac’s CCUS forecast was bleaker in the near term. It revised its 10-year forecast down by 22%, reflecting policy uncertainty in the US and slow policy evolution in Asia.
Challenges included high costs, regulatory hurdles and public acceptance. The emissions reduction potential is also small compared with the amount of CO2 that needs removing from the atmosphere.
WoodMac projected point-source capture could abate 4% of total emissions by 2050, falling short of the 6% needed to restrict global warming to 2.5C.
Gandhi said: “Despite the strong growth, we expect most economies with targets on CCUS will achieve only 50%-70% of their set goals by 2050.
“Our analysis underscores the need for a multifaceted approach to decarbonisation, combining CCUS with other clean energy technologies and efficiency measures.”
There were just 50 operating carbon capture projects in the world in 2024, with the capacity to store 51m tonnes of CO2 per year, according to the Global CCS Institute, an industry group.
Shipping, which makes up about 2.3% of man-made CO2 emissions, emitted 911m tonnes of CO2 in 2023, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation.
Policy support is also far from certain.
In February, the UK Parliament’s Committee of Public Accounts found CCUS was expensive and unproven, recommending the UK’s energy department regularly assess its effectiveness and value for money.
“There is a high risk that CCUS will not deliver to the timescales or the level of carbon reductions needed and thus jeopardise the government’s ability to meet carbon reduction targets,” the committee concluded.