GIVEN Russia’s recent history of scrambling jets and sailing naval vessels conspicuously close to transiting tankers carrying its oil, there is an understandable reluctance from Baltic states to start forcibly stopping shadow fleet ships.

Quite apart from the risk of Russian escalation that no single state wants to counter on its own, there is the minor matter of undermining international law and their own future trading conditions.

Enhanced surveillance — the diplomatic equivalent of a British tut and a hard stare — as these ships sail past, is as far as they will go right now.

But is scrutiny having any impact?

Well, the answer is not yet clear, but it does appear that at least some of the shiftier end of shadow fleet tankers are hesitating before entering the English Channel.

These tend to be flagless ships, exiled from even the fig leaf of respectability granted by bottom-end registries.

The reassuring presence of Russia’s corvette Boikiy, which itself recently passed through the channel, coincidently at the same time as some shadow fleet tankers, might mean that trend is short lived of course. But equally it may serve as a reminder that Russia does not have the resources to escort every shadow tanker.

For now, Germany’s foreign minister is selling the line that increased vigilance and surveillance is increasing the pressure on the Russian shadow fleet and protecting the Baltic Sea habitat.

Neither he, nor any of the other Baltic leaders, is prepared to countenance what happens when these flagless tankers sail past their routine requests to show documentation.

The answer right now seems to be that they will be fed up to the EU sanctions list, which will ultimately just fuel the number of ships sailing without flags through the Baltic to load Russian crude.

But will that alter the volume of shadow fleet transits through the Baltic? We will all be watching to see.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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