JUST because your ship isn’t in a war zone right now doesn’t mean that a war zone isn’t coming to your ship.

The recent spate of mysterious explosions on tankers, a rising concern in recent months, is even starting to find its way into the more serious end of the mainstream media.

The threat is looking nasty. In the year to date, five vessels have been hit with what we are now pretty certain are magnetically attached timer-activated explosive devices.

The common name for them, which will be familiar to those raised on tales of the derring-do of Second World War frogmen in British boys’ comics, is limpet mines.

Admittedly, it’s old-school technology. These devices have been around since the 1930s. But their use requires a high degree of planning and technical sophistication, and suggests unnamed state actors. After that, the trail goes cold.

The lack of attribution continues to frustrate commercial operators and security agencies alike, and this ambiguity severely hampers risk assessment and maritime threat forecasting.

But the common link seems to be that the vessels being targeted had all undertaken Russian stems since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s almost Cold War spy thriller stuff.

Insurers, who have to pick up the tab, are also becoming worried. Skuld has recently published loss prevention advice, suggesting owners can mitigate risk by conducting underwater inspections, particularly after high-risk calls.

The P&I club also recommends that crews be trained to recognise risk indicators and advises shipowners “to avoid geopolitical hotspots where feasible”.

Of course, the job of underwriters is to price risk, as they have been doing for hundreds of years. They will insure almost anything if the premium makes sense. But should these incidents continue, the impact on pricing will be felt by the entire market.

There is also the consideration that high risk means high profits. In the current market, in an era when political crises can blow up out of nowhere, there is money to be made precisely by heading for the planet’s rough neighbourhoods.

But to think in purely financial terms is too narrow a frame of reference. Human lives could be at stake. As far as we know, no seafarers have yet been killed or injured. But the industry’s luck may not hold indefinitely.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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