GLOBAL coal shipments fell 6% during the first six half of 2025, driven largely by weak Chinese demand.

BIMCO shipping analysis manager Filipe Gouveia said stronger renewable electricity generation and lower steel output meant weaker demand for coal.

Chinese coal imports fell in March, April and May, squeezed in part by strong domestic production.

Data from Signal Ocean shows seaborne imports decreased by more than 10% in 1Q25 and more than 20% in 2Q25.

SwissMarine chairman Peter Weernink’s suggestion in Geneva last month that seaborne coal had peaked in 2024 might have sounded overly pessimistic to some, but Signal Ocean data again shows global seaborne volumes down by more than 5% on 2024 in both the first and second quarters of the year.

China has been investing heavily in clean energy in recent years, with BIMCO estimating that 71% of its energy investment is on renewables. That’s aside from the increasing overland imports from Mongolia, which come via rail, rather than ship.

“Amid weaker coal volumes, competition between segments in the dry bulk market increased, putting pressure on freight rates,” Gouveia said.

“The panamax segment managed to boost its coal shipments by 4% year on year and grew its share of the world’s coal shipments from 49% to 54%. These gains came primarily at the cost of the capesize segment, which transported 23% less coal than in the previous year.”

Bouts of extreme weather could generate demand in the medium term, Gouveia said, while exports to Southeast Asia continued to rise.

But Chinese and Indian inventories were high, BIMCO said, discouraging purchasing even amid low prices.

Any short term spike is “unlikely to stop the expected gradual global decline in coal shipments, which is driven by the energy transition and a weak outlook for global steel demand”, Gouveia said.