Threats to Russian oil flows intensify but exports keep chugging along
- Russian crude and products exports in first half of 2025 were in line with average volumes since price caps were enacted
- Urals traded below the price cap for most of first-half 2025, allowing European tanker owners to re-enter the trade, putting pressure on freight rates
- VLCCs continue to be the biggest loser from sanctions; reported fixtures of world’s largest charterer, China’s Unipec, have continued to decline
It looks like the status quo will prevail for Russian exports of crude and products. US president Donald Trump’s threat of eventual tariffs on buyers of Russian exports is being viewed, for now, as a non-event
