Transatlantic trade in tariff crosshairs as US-EU deal deadline nears
- US and EU could end up in a tit-for-tat tariff retaliation cycle if a deal isn’t reached soon
- US importers of EU building supplies and beverages have pulled forward volumes ahead of the tariff deadline
- Outlook for westbound transatlantic spot rates in the second half 2025 is bearish, given first-half 2025 frontloading and potential demand destruction from tariffs
It’s entirely possible that the US and EU won’t reach a deal in the next two weeks, the US will triple its tariff, the EU will retaliate, and the US will retaliate against the EU. Importers have at least partially prepared for this worst-case scenario by bringing goods across the Atlantic early
