A SECOND sanctioned liquefied natural gas tanker calling at Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 project in less than a month has raised speculation that Novatek, Russia’s largest independent gas producer, may be trying to resume loadings at the embattled export facility.

But with limited options in terms of buyers, floating storage availability and challenging ice conditions to contend with, the prospect of any immediate change in fortunes for the heavily-sanctioned project remains slim.

On Wednesday, the 175,120 cu m LNG tanker Voskhod (IMO: 9953511) berthed at Arctic LNG 2’s Utrenniy Terminal in ballast.

Voskhod was one of several LNG vessels sanctioned by both the US and EU last year in a bid to prevent the Arctic LNG 2 project from becoming fully operational and allowing Russia to significantly expand is energy export capabilities.

Last month, a similarly sanctioned Russian LNG tanker, Iris (IMO: 9953523), also called at the terminal after sitting idle for most of the year along with several other sanctioned LNG tankers.

While it is assumed that Iris loaded a cargo, the LNG tanker moved immediately into a holding position just south of the Kara Sea and has not moved since, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, corroborated by satellite imagery.

Voskhod is expected to follow the same pattern.

The last time LNG was shipped from the plant was in early October 2024, but production was shut down shortly after due largely to tightening sanctions from the US, but also a build-up of ice around the facility and persistent operational problems.

The US directly sanctioned Arctic LNG 2, a project publicly backed by Vladimir Putin and thought to have cost in the region of $25bn to construct, in a bid to ensure that the project would be rendered “dead in the water”.

While Novatek had initially hoped that Donald Trump’s entry into the White House could herald an easing of US secondary sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project, the restrictions have remained in place and progress to operationalise the project has largely frozen.

While power units have now been delivered into critical gravity-based platforms, best-guess estimates from analysts suggest they have at best half capacity on each train. While that represents an estimated potential 6.6 million tonnes a year, it is not just the operational restrictions that are holding the project back.

The Kremlin is keen to develop the northern sea route via Arctic shipping lanes as it reorients its export-driven economy from European to Asian markets, but that ambition has been thwarted by western sanctions against its Arctic energy facilities and tanker fleet.

Politically speaking, Russia has been left out in the cold, suspended from the Arctic Council, the co-operation body for the region, and cut out of scientific co-operation.

Economically, the sanctions have stymied routes to market.

When the Palau-flagged LNG tanker Sputnik Energy (ex-Pioneer)(IMO: 9256602), loaded in August last year from Arctic LNG 2’s last major attempt to ramp up production, the vessel spent over five months in search of a buyer.  Along with another sanctioned Palau-flagged LNG vessel, Sputnik Energy eventually offloaded its cargo into a Russia-owned floating storage unit.

While an official reason for the five-month journey into storage was never offered, it is thought that US sanctions pressure eventually cut off initial interest from Chinese buyers.

“[Sputnik Energy] had headed for Hong Kong offering about 40%-45% discount, but it stopped just six hours or so ahead of entering port,” recalled Eikland Energy managing director Kjell Eikland.

Since then Novatek has been trying every option, under pressure from the Kremlin which has set an ambitious plan to commission 100m tonnes of LNG capacity by 2030.

According to a Financial Times report in January, Novatek had been approaching various think-tanks in Brussels in an effort to lobby against tightening EU sanctions.

Given that the EU has since announced that it is moving towards a complete ban on Russian gas imports, aiming to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels by the end of 2027, that approach appears to have failed.

“[Novatek] have been trying all winter and they've been using every opportunity… they have had rounds of discussions in pretty much all the capitals and certainly several places in China,” said Eikland.

But so far, nobody is committing.

“The key concern now that I’ve heard is that the prospective Chinese buyers are worried about reliability. They don’t want just one cargo, and as long as Arctic LNG 2 cannot prove that it is able to operate reliably, that’s going to be a problem,” said Eikland.

Even if Novatek was able to overcome the operational constraints and find a willing buyer not put off by US secondary sanctions that remain firmly in place across any asset touching Arctic LNG 2, there is the ice conditions to consider.

While previous abortive attempts to load cargoes were eventually offloaded into floating storage, that capacity is now full, limiting options further.

“So it goes straight on board the ship, and it holds there for a while, but essentially they are gambling that they will be able to sail the Northern Sea Route at the earliest opportunity, which, in my view, is mid-August at the earliest,” said Eikland.

Novatek has not responded to requests for comment on the latest loadings.