Has tanker upside from US crude exports reached its peak?
- VLCC loadings in the US Gulf slumped to a year-to-date low in June; 2Q25 loadings were down 28% year on year, according to Jefferies
- US crude production growth is slowing due to low prices; both IEA and Opec expect US production to increase by less than 1% in 2026
- US seaborne crude exports have increasingly favoured short-haul Europe routes over long-haul Asian routes, according to Vortexa data
When the US entered the global crude tanker export market in 2016, it was a game changer. But the positives for freight demand may have already played out, and tonne-miles could decline going forward