VALE produced 80.6m tonnes of iron ore in the second quarter of 2025, up 3.7% on the same period in 2024 and nearly a rise of 25% on the first quarter of 2025.

The Brazilian mining giant said the gains were driven by a strong performance from its Brucutu plant and a record output at its huge S11D project.

But iron ore sales decreased 3.1% in the second quarter of the year.

The story is similar for rival Rio Tinto, which reported an increase in production from its Pilbara mines of 5% in 2Q25, but a decrease in shipments of 1% on the same period in 2024.

Those figures tally with weaker Chinese imports of ore so far in 2025, which declined 3.26% and 1.7% year on year in 1Q25 and 2Q25, respectively.

Portside inventories remain high in China, despite decreasing in the second quarter, as steel output continues to be sluggish.

Cyclones in the area meant Rio Tinto’s production would likely be at the lower end of its guidance for the year, the miner said.

But it did confirm that the first shipments from its Simandou project would now leave in November 2025, rather than the vaguer “late 2025” guidance that was given beforehand.

A real ramp-up from Simandou is not expected until 2026 at the earliest, but cape owners will be encouraged by this statement thanks to the tonne-mile increase expected, if China seeks to replace some Australian volumes with Guinean volumes.

If China’s diminished appetite is more permanent, rather than a temporary satiation, those tonne-miles will come in handy to support capesize rates in 2026 and beyond.