THE prospect of an Arctic shortcut for global trade is a prize that attracts perennial attention at this time of year.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average and the first ice-free summer could come as soon as the 2040s, the scientific studies tell us.

Bad news for humanity, good news for entrepreneurs.

The fact that Sea Legend, a fast-growing Chinese carrier known for “bold” market moves, is launching a direct Arctic route from China to northern Europe this September, tells you everything you need to know about the “fortune favours the brave” types eyeing up global warming as an investment opportunity.

Remember, these were the intrepid risk takers who rushed into the Red Sea while others were dodging Houthi rockets.

But before risk-positive owners start searching the summer sales for deals on thermal underpants, it is worth considering the unpredictable ice formations may be the least risky barrier shipping faces in the Arctic.

Even with the Houthi threat diverting 60% of Red Sea traffic, Arctic traffic remains negligible in comparison and will do for years to come.

The significance of Sea Legend’s ice run is more geopolitical than economic right now.

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been making unprecedented concessions to China when it comes to Arctic affairs and the increasingly collaborative approach to Arctic development is looking stronger than ever, with various MOUs, projects and investments well underway.

Russia’s plans to dominate Arctic liquefied natural gas production have been somewhat hampered by EU and US sanctions, but without China’s help in the background, it could have been much worse.

As the EU pushes ahead with its questionable plan to cut out Russian LNG completely by 2027, China remains open to increasing its supply of Russian (possibly Arctic-sourced) LNG, not least because US tariffs may ultimately make Russian LNG more competitive on the Chinese market.

There are also suggestions that Chinese firms were behind recent deliveries that allowed the minimal progress at Arctic LNG2 to restart.

The Sino-Russian maritime collaboration playing out in the Arctic right now is just one of many such political alliances, standoffs and power plays that will ultimately determine the speed at which Arctic shipping develops in practice.

Trump may have temporarily been distracted from his Greenland takeover, but there are bigger questions than shipping to get to beforehand in the High North.

How quickly the ice melts may end up being secondary to the geopolitical thawing that needs to happen first.

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