EU-US deal averts trade war that could have crippled box volumes
- US importers will pay 15% tariff on EU goods, up from 2% pre-Trump 2.0; higher costs are negative for future container volumes
- If agreement had not been reached, US importers would have been charged a 30% tariff and EU would have retaliated, a much more negative scenario for box flows
- EU agreement to purchase US energy set at unrealistically high level; higher energy flows to EU vs Asia are negative for bulk commodity shipping tonne-miles
The new EU-US trade framework is not positive for shipping demand. While a trade war was averted, the resulting deal will hurt US importers of containerised goods and incentivise shorter-haul voyages for oil, LNG and coal