Trump calls on China to ‘quadruple’ soyabean imports
But US soya exports to China have almost halved so far in 2025, as trade tensions cement China’s growing reliance on South American grains
Increased orders would ‘substantially’ reduce China’s trade deficit with the US, Trump claimed
PRESIDENT Trump wants China to “quadruple” its order of US soyabeans, despite the fact that imports of US soya have almost halved so far this year.
In a post on social media outlet Truth Social, Trump said quadrupling orders was a way of “substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA”, adding that “rapid service will be provided”.
Trump’s comments sent soya futures rising on the Chicago Board of Trade, after he claimed China was “worried about its shortage of soybeans”.
It is true that Chinese soyabean inventories were depleted in April of this year, hitting a two-year low, but have since been restocked to the 8m tonne mark.
Trump’s hopes for orders to start flying in as the US grain export season gets going in the next few weeks and months do not appear to be rooted in much substance.
US soya is still subject to a 10% tariff under the extended truce agreed by Beijing and Washington.
But the tariff rollercoaster ride earlier in the year has only served to strengthen China’s relationship with South American grains.
Exports from Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil to China have remained very healthy so far this year, with April the only month to see less than 10m tonnes shipped east, and even then 9.5m tonnes were exported.
US Foreign Agricultural Service data shows that just 5.9m tonnes of US soya was exported to China in the first half of 2025, compared to 9.7m tonnes in the first six months of 2024, a decrease of nearly 40%.
Data from Signal Ocean shows that so far in 2025, 81% of Chinese soyabean imports have come from Brazil, versus just 7.6% from the US. The American share was 12.6% in 2024 and 15.4% in 2023.
It is true that China is keen to reduce its reliance on Brazilian grain, just as it continues to work to reduce its reliance on Australian coal and Australian and Brazilian iron ore.
The likelihood of the US being the major beneficiary of such a strategy and regaining much of the huge swathes of market share it has ceded to South America is slim, in spite of Trump’s overtures to president Xi.
