THE rising age profile of the world fleet and an increase in fires at sea are both issues for the marine insurance community, the International Union of Marine Insurance has been told.

The comments came from Astrid Seltmann, the in-house statistician at Scandinavian trade association Cefor, during a facts and figures workshop at the organisation’s conference in Singapore this morning.

Vessel values at this year’s renewal were down by a fraction of a percentage point, meaning they are not showing the same degree of volatility witnessed in previous years.

The main exception here is boxships, whose value rocketed during the pandemic but have subsided since. The recent decision of the Opec+ grouping of oil-producing countries to increase output may also be a fillip for tanker S&P.

Seltmann also highlighted the increasing average age of insured tonnage, which she has famously described in the past as a “silver tsunami”.

Cefor’s collective book — which is captured on its Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics database, of which Seltmann is custodian — comprises a fairly representative 30% cross section of the world fleet.

The largest proportion of it is aged 10-15 years old. By next year, the 10-20 age bracket will make up more than half the portfolio. That contrasts to 10 years ago, when younger vessels dominated.

Older ships, known as “old ladies” in shipbroker jargon, are often well maintained. But from a statistical perspective they are demonstrably more prone to fires, machinery claims and consequential damages.

“Looking at casualty frequency, this has seen a long-term downward trend and even dipped in the pandemic and has since come up again, not to a very scary level but to a normal level,” said Seltmann.

The frequencies and costs associated with total losses continues to trend downwards overall, but upwards when correlated with the cost of claims as a whole.

Claims costs per vessel in the 2020-23 period were on average 22% up on 2015-2019.

Also, the worst casualties are becoming blockbusters, with at least one incident generating a $50m-plus claim each year for the previous three. Between 2015 and 2022, anything above $30m was regarded as unusual.

That tendency is being made worse by claims inflation, with the average cost of hull claims also rising.

There is some evidence of increased value of weather-related claims, which may be down to the rerouting of ships away from the Red Sea and around the more dangerous Cape of Good Hope, in response to the Houthi onslaught against merchant shipping.

Fires were the main cause of big marine claims in the first half of 2025. They were responsible for four payouts that overstepped the $20m mark.

Such an outcome is far above the 10-year average, which stands at 1.5 claims in each six-month period, a recent report from Cefor suggested.

Since 2015, 16 out of 26 $20m-plus claims have been caused by fires, making up almost two thirds of the bill in this range. Eleven of those 16 ships were more than 20 years of age.

While Seltmann expressly did not mention any vessels by name, major recent fire casualties include the blazes on car carrier Morning Midas (IMO: 9289910) in the Pacific and boxship Wan Hai 503 (IMO: 9294862) in Indian waters, both within days of each other in June. The extent of Nordic market involvement, if any, is unclear.

This year has been the third consecutive year of elevated claims costs. A combination of repair-cost inflation — flowing from steel prices, the cost of spare parts, labour costs and exchange rate fluctuations — and the spike in big losses has forced up claim costs considerably since 2020.

While the rate of increase seems to be flattening outing, 2024 and 2025 claims costs remain at a level similar to that experienced in 2023.

While high-value losses often seem to be caused by dangerous or misdeclared cargo, engine rooms are particularly vulnerable, with the rates of engine room fires seen in the passenger, container, car carrier and ro-ro segments.

Most other major claims resulted from navigation errors such as collisions, groundings and contact, and only occasionally caused by other factors.