CONFIDENCE in the very large crude carrier segment continues to mount.

Spot rates are nearing the six figure per day mark even before the traditional seasonal upswing kicks in. The Oslo-listed shares of Frontline have just hit a new 52-week high.

Clarksons Securities put average global VLCC rates at $88,900 per day on Monday, with eco VLCC rates at $93,100 per day and non-eco VLCCs at $85,000 per day.

The Tankers International pool reported a fixture on subs on Monday for the Twin Castor (IMO: 9625956) for a Middle East Gulf-China voyage at Worldscale 95 or $90,700 per day. On Saturday, TI reported a short-haul MEG-India fixture on subs for the Houston (IMO: 9596947) at W120 or $119,682 per day.

“This is the first time this year that rates have broken past and crucially held above the W80 level for a prolonged period and are clearly backed by fundamentals,” said brokerage BRS.

“The story is now materialising,” wrote Arctic Securities analyst Kristoffer Barth Skeie, referring to the bullish thesis on rates.

“Rates have been well above the five-year average over the past two months and the gap is growing fast, while history suggests rates tend to rise meaningfully in Q4, with an average increase of around 130% from September through December.”

Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta upgraded his VLCC rate forecast on Monday. He increased his 2026 and 2027 projections for eco VLCCs to $67,500 per day, up from $65,000 per day previously. Rates for full-year 2025 are expected to average $45,000 per day.

The tanker space “is entering the second phase of the market upcycle”, Nokta affirmed.

“Midsize crude and product tankers enjoyed record earnings during 2022-2024, while VLCCs lagged due to Opec+ cuts. With Opec+ now reversing course, VLCCs are set to receive their due and strong rates should cascade across all tanker segments.”

VLCCs “will lead the charge” and “a rising tide for VLCCs lifts all tankers”, said Nokta.

According to Skeie: “So far this year, crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia are basically flat. Production ahead will need to increase in order to meet the [Opec+] quotas, which should have a positive spillover effect on crude exports.

“Looking at production and exports from Middle Eastern producers, it is clear that a full return of Phase Two (1.7m barrels per day) of the so-called voluntary cuts from April 23 could drive significant seaborn growth.

“If all of the volume growth after August translates into exports, it would correspond to an incremental 1.4m bpd from the Middle East Gulf,” said Skeie.

Vortexa highlighted an emerging positive for VLCC demand due to cross-basin flows.

Vortexa said on Monday that Atlantic-to-Pacific VLCC voyages reached a yearly low in July but are now rebounding sharply.

“Month-on-month trends point to a significant rebound, with September preliminary data already showing volumes above seasonal norms,” Vortexa said, adding that the shift in VLCC employment toward Atlantic-to-Pacific runs should “support rates into Q4”.

Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal pointed to yet another potential positive for VLCCs: the possibility of floating storage.

“Even a modest increase in floating storage could add meaningful upside in today’s already tight tanker market,” said Mørkedal.

“At the peak of the floating storage boom in May 2020, 11% of the global tanker fleet was in storage versus a normal level of around 2%, driving VLCC spot rates above $200,000 per day for several weeks.

“Every 100m barrels in floating storage absorbs 2% of the fleet, which, from current levels, could push VLCC spot rates above $110,000 per day.”

Mørkedal noted that the International Energy Agency and Energy Information Administration are both predicting accelerating inventory builds over the next two quarters, with the EIA citing the potential for floating storage.

The EIA is forecasting global stock builds of 2.3m bpd in both 4Q25 and 1Q26, while the IEA expects builds of 3.2m bpd in 4Q25 and 4.4m bpd n 1Q26.

These figures would push inventories “to levels last seen in 2020, when tanks tops were reached”, said Mørkedal. “While onshore inventories remain relatively low, builds of this scale could quickly overwhelm land-based storage and push volumes onto the water.”

VLCC rate upside could emerge prior to floating storage if oil pricing shifts from backwardation to contango, he continued.

Opec+ production gains were absorbed by higher refinery processing in August and September, but gains in the coming months are “expected to coincide with seasonal refinery maintenance, which will reduce crude runs”.

“This sets up a near-term test. Weaker refinery demand combined with higher arrivals could push the curve into contango. Such a shift would incentivise refiners to store crude and support imports, while charterers often respond by slowing vessel speeds, using oil in transit as storage,” wrote Mørkedal.

“Together, these behaviours could underpin tanker freight rates, even if floating storage only builds later once onshore capacity is pressured.”