THE one “guaranteed” remaining safe route between Asia and Europe could be disrupted with relative ease, James Henry Bergeron, political adviser to the Commander of Nato Allied Command, has warned.

Shipping shifted from the Red Sea shortcut around the Cape of Good Hope in the wake of Houthi attacks in late 2023. As of September 2025, traffic through the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint remains far below levels seen before the Iran-backed rebel group hijacked Galaxy Leader (IMO: 9237307), despite a recent spike in transits last month.

Sky News economics editor Ed Conway told the London International Shipping Week headline conference that he was “struck” by how little significant disruption there had been to world trade despite the rerouting, and paid homage to the shipping industry’s resilience.

But Bergeron was graver in his outlook. Disrupting that safe route “wouldn’t be that hard”, he said. He said the impact Somali pirates had with “zero technology” was evidence of this and said his organisation was watching the situation.

Any disruption to the round-Africa route would bring a “massive dislocation of trade”, he added.

Maritime security had undergone a “paradigm shift” in the past four years. Nato’s focus in the post-Cold War era was centred on the threat from non-state actors and enforcing arms embargoes on those that did not comply with the rules-based international order.

While some indicators of change were visible, including limpet mines used by Iranian forces, the shift came with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which saw shipping and port infrastructure “directly targeted”.

The change had been from “exquisite, expensive technology in the hands of a few rich countries” to newer tech that can be placed in the hands of “just about anyone who wants it”.