INDUSTRY experts have expressed concern that the Net-Zero Framework might not be adopted at next month’s extraordinary meeting of the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee.

Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade, who chaired the discussion at the headline conference of London International Shipping Week held at the IMO headquarters, asked quite simply whether the framework would be adopted by the 176 member states.

Cargill Ocean Transportation president Jan Dieleman said he was more confident “three or four months ago” than he was today.

“I think I need to be honest and open about that,” he said. “I do think we cannot ignore that there are bigger powers playing at the moment than just shipping, and I think there’s always a chance that that could be derailed.”

Among those “bigger powers” is of course the US, which expressed its explicit opposition to what it called the “global carbon tax” last month.

“Whatever its stated goals, the proposed framework is effectively a global carbon tax on Americans levied by an unaccountable UN organisation,” a state department memo said.

“Our fellow IMO members should be on notice that we will look for their support against this action, and not hesitate to retaliate or explore remedies for our citizens should this endeavour fail.”

A statement to Lloyd’s List by the state department suggested those remedies might include tariffs or even visa restrictions against those who support the framework next month.

Zodiac Maritime head of regulatory affairs Katy Ware, who was also the UK’s permanent representative to the IMO for more than a decade, said the US disagreeing with IMO legislation was “nothing new”.

The “noise” and “distraction” she said was being created by US politicians would not derail the adoption next month.

That being said, Ware agreed with Dieleman that confidence about the outcome of the extraordinary meeting was not at the same level following the conclusion of MEPC83.

Voting, she reminded the audience, was not normal at the IMO.

The problem shipping faces if there is a vote and the framework marginally gets over the line, she said, would be a lack of consensus the IMO typically looks for.

Implementing the framework into force in the event of a close result would mean lots of “difficult, detailed” conversations, she said.

For his part, IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said he remained “very confident” the framework would be adopted next month, highlighting the “70 years of experience that we have working and finding arrangements in this organisation”.

When asked what would happen if the framework were not adopted, Dominguez said he didn’t work that way and said he hadn’t even considered that scenario.

Dieleman was more forthcoming.

The alternative “is a lot of regulation on the domestic level, the regional level, which I think is going to be even more painful for the industry”, he said.

“Proliferation of regional measures is not good for our industry,” Ware added.

Dominguez offered a final rallying cry for the framework set to be adopted, or not, next month.

“We will address all the concerns throughout the implementation phase,” he told the conference.

“It’s not the first time that we have faced challenges. That’s what IMO is there for. Bring the parties together, have those understandings and move forward.”

The extraordinary meeting of the MEPC takes place October 13-17, 2025.