IT IS sunny in London and we’re all burned out from London International Shipping Week, so I’ll keep this short.

The state of decarbonising shipping comes down to two things.

First, whether the Net-Zero Framework is adopted next month. I argue below that it probably will be, and the intervention by several big shipowners doesn’t much change that.

Second, whether the NZF will be any good. Most will focus on the costs to shipping companies, but the proof will be in how the International Maritime Organization chooses which alternative fuels are green, and how it rewards them.

That could take up to two years. Until we know the results, it’s next to pointless trying to predict whether the rules will be good for the environment, bad or indifferent. It’s also impossible to invest seriously in methanol or ammonia, and doubtful to invest in liquified natural gas.

On the bright side, shipowners are in a much easier position here than others in the supply chain, such as fuel producers. They can and will wait.

There is plenty of time to work on the technical and safety challenges, and shipping is making progress at both. No one is suggesting we rush to ammonia.

Voluntary industry initiatives, fancy funding tools and green pledges are nice, but don’t matter.

But companies could work together to make it easier to fund green retrofits, perhaps by aping aviation-funding models.

Shipowners will pass on the costs of whatever the IMO imposes in the form of a bunker surcharge anyway. Differences in regional rules will create arbitrage, which is good for freight rates. If tougher rules lead to more scrapping, rates go up.

If the rules are too loose, then nothing really changes. We’re right where we started and will probably be talking about this at the next London International Shipping Week.

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