Counting the costs of Trump’s tariffs to global growth and trade
- OECD expects global GDP to grow by 2.9% next year; before Trump’s tariffs, it was predicting 3.3%
- US GDP will grow by only 1.4% next year, says Moody’s; if there had been no new tariffs, US GDP would have risen by 2.6%
- Moody’s foresees 2026 ‘rally’ if Supreme Court rules against emergency tariffs and recession if full-scale trade war erupts
Shipping has profited amid US tariffs, but the industry’s fortunes are heavily linked to future economic growth. The negative effect of tariffs on GDP growth will become an increasing headwind to trade demand, starting in 2026
