US-China tensions reignite as post-peak box trade grinds lower
- Next deadline for US-China tariff reprieve is November 10; tensions have re-escalated following new Chinese rare earth export controls and port fee tit-for-tat
- US imports fell 8% in September vs August and were down 8% y/y, with imports from China down 12% m/m and 23% y/y, according to Descartes
- National Retail Federation expects US imports in 4Q25 to be down 17% y/y and 7% vs 4Q23
The outlook for container shipping remains weak and there is another major risk ahead: The trade-war ceasefire between the US and China may collapse even before the next negotiations deadline on November 10
