IT APPEARS as if the EU’s patience with the shadow fleet is growing thin.

After months of asking for insurance details — with limited success, if we’re being generous — President Macron’s comments earlier this month were quite the departure.

Speaking in the wake of the French operation on board Boracay (IMO: 9332810), he said “you kill the business model by detaining even for days or weeks these vessels and forcing them to organise themselves differently”.

In other words, be so annoying that sailing anywhere near EU waters or exclusive economic zones becomes intolerable.

Macron’s wish appears to have moved a step closer to fruition, after a background paper issued to a meeting of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council said the bloc could seek bilateral agreements with flag states to enable EU member states to board shadow fleet tankers.

That would, in theory, be all above board as far as UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is concerned (there are several caveats to that, but seeing as these bilateral agreements do not yet exist, it’s not worth getting too far into the Unclos weeds).

But as IR Consilium chief executive Ian Ralby told Lloyd’s List today, that only gives you a legal basis to have a poke around and hope you find something.

If you don’t find a deficiency, you have to disembark and wish the tanker bon voyage.

And what happens to all the perfectly legitimate vessels flagged with a registry that the EU strikes a deal with?

It’s probably unlikely they’ll be bothered by the European frigates, but then again, Lloyd’s List Intelligence analysts can attest to just how hard it is to correctly identify a shadow fleet vessel.

The other risk is that the EU is accused by Moscow of interrupting freedom of navigation for its own political gain.

The worst outcome of this plan is that Moscow might have a point.

As Ralby said, a successful case at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea for Russia would in effect represent a UN ruling for Putin. Although Itlos is not a UN agency, it is set up under the rules of Unclos.

In other words, a complete and utter disaster for Brussels.

Worse still would be if Iran or even China admired the EU’s plan so much, they decide to implement ones of their own in the Strait of Hormuz or the South China Sea.

After all, if the EU is bending maritime law because it doesn’t like your fleet, why shouldn’t the Revolutionary Guard join in the fun?

All this is to say what the shipping industry has been telling politicians for some time now: sanctions are easy to announce, but significantly harder to enforce.

The EU is getting tired of its sanctions being circumvented. It’s also desperate to see Russia driven out of Ukraine, which is an admirable aim.

But if it gets this wrong, it risks finding itself in the uncomfortable position of being on the wrong side of international law. This is less than ideal considering the target of this plan.

Joshua Minchin
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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