Russia likely to retaliate following Ukraine attacks on shadow fleet tankers
- The two incidents occurred off the Turkish coast on Friday, November 28
- Security experts say that these attacks represent an unprecedented intensity in Ukrainian action at sea
- Experts believe that Russia will likely retaliate against Ukrainian ports
Sanctioned product tanker Virat and shadow fleet crude oil tanker Kairo were hit by naval drones, Ukrainian security services confirmed
UKRAINE has attacked two shadow fleet* tankers off the Turkish coast in a dramatic intensification of conflict in the Black Sea region.
The Gambia-flagged, 150,000 dwt crude oil tanker Kairos (IMO: 9236004) and Gambia-flagged, 115,000 dwt sanctioned product tanker Virat (IMO: 9832559) experienced explosions on the evening of Friday, November 28 off the Turkish coast. Kairos was attacked close to the northern end of the Bosporus, while Virat was attacked further east in the Black Sea.
Both tankers were headed for Russian ports in ballast when they were hit.
Ukrainian security services have taken responsibility for the attacks and circulated a video which shows unmanned craft heading towards the vessels, before explosions are seen.
Both tankers sustained “critical damage” and were “effectively taken out of service”, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said in a statement.
The aft portion of Kairos ignited following the attack and was not extinguished until November 30, Turkish officials confirmed.
Virat was attacked again on the morning of Saturday, November 29, and has since been towed away from the scene towards the Turkish coast.
All crew on both vessels have been accounted for. All 25 crew members of Kairos were evacuated by Turkish coastguard.
Control Risks maritime security analyst Arran Kennedy said that together with a Ukrainian attack that temporarily shut down export operations at the CPC terminal at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which exports Kazakh product, this represented an unprecedented intensity in Ukrainian action at sea.
“In response to the overt attacks in the Black Sea, Russia will likely retaliate against Ukrainian ports, as well as Ukraine-bound and Ukraine-origin shipping in the Black Sea,” Kennedy told Lloyd’s List.
“This will most likely involve heavy bombardments on port infrastructure that cause damage to adjacent commercial ships; direct strikes on berthed or anchored Ukraine-trading vessels in the Gulf of Odesa; and/or attacks against such vessels while underway in the Black Sea, provided they are not in the territorial waters of Nato states.”
A spokesperson for the Turkish Ministry of Foreign affairs said the attacks, which occurred inside Türkiye’s exclusive economic zone, “have created serious risks in terms of navigation, safety of life and property, and environmental security in the region”.
“We are maintaining our contacts with the relevant parties to prevent the war from spreading across the Black Sea and escalating further, and to ensure that our country’s economic interests and activities in the region are not adversely affected.”
Kennedy said that Ukraine had the capability to conduct such strikes “but largely refrained” from doing so for fear that Russia could in turn intensify attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure and shipping.
“Likewise, Russia limited its attacks on those ports so as not to provoke Ukraine into assaulting its oil and gas export capacity,” he said.
“But red lines have now been crossed, and both sides are likely to be caught up in a tit-for-tat escalation pathway over the coming months involving the targeting of maritime infrastructure.”
In a separate incident on November 27, Panama-flagged product tanker Mersin (IMO: 9428683) was hit by four explosions while it was at anchor off the coast of Dakar.
The Turkish managers of the ship confirmed that the engine room was flooded with seawater after the “external explosions”.
The management has not provided any details about the cause of the explosions and said it was still under investigation.
The 2009-built, 50,100 dwt Mersin loaded in the Russian port of Taman in mid-August and then sailed to Togo, berthed at Lome anchorage on September 18 for a day. The vessel then sailed to Dakar and has been anchored off Dakar since September 25, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s vessel tracking.
Control Risks saw at least four large holes in Mersin’s hull on the images, and said that “they were almost certainly caused by limpet mine explosions”.
“This is the eighth such incident in 2025 to target tankers that have called to Russian ports to lift Russian cargo and/or have exported non-Russian cargo from Russian ports,” Kennedy said.
He added that only state actors likely have the capability — as in the Mersin case and previous cases — to target and attach limpet mines on vessel hulls using divers or personnel in small boats, either within port and anchorage areas or while the vessel is underway, before departing undetected.
