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Sanctions Tankers and Gas Ukraine crisis

Shadow fleet scenarios suggest muted impact if Russian sanctions are lifted

  • A peace deal in Ukraine would change the makeup of the crude fleet, but pivot to Asia is expected to last
  • Shadow fleet ships over 20 years would exit trading, but younger ships could be reintegrated into mainstream fleet
  • Increased Russian efficiency post-sanctions and incoming tonnage will temper bullish impact of sanctions being lifted

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The uncertain prospect of a peace deal in Ukraine has sent tanker analysts scrambling to reassess the fate of the shadow fleet and what impact lifting Russian sanctions might have on the market for 2026. The result is more underwhelming than many would have hoped for

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    This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use. For high-quality copies or electronic reprints for distribution to colleagues or customers, please call UK support at +44 (0)20 3377 3996 / APAC support at +65 6508 2430

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