INDIA could find itself between a rock and a hard place as it strives to balance its grand maritime ambitions with the current state of global geopolitics.

The US this year placed 50% tariffs on India as it strives to rebalance the trade deficit. To remedy the situation, India has now committed to more US energy imports in hopes that the US will reduce tariffs.

And just last month, India showed that it meant what it said. Indian public sector units signed a one-year structured contract to import 2.2m tonnes of liquified petroleum gas from the US.

The agreement follows an earlier visit in July by India’s minister of petroleum and natural gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, to major US LPG producers.

India has also reduced imports of Russian crude oil, with shipbrokers seeing more interest from Indian PSUs for Middle East Gulf barrels instead.

In the maritime sector, India in 2023 launched its maritime ambitions under the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 agenda. Part of this plan includes its ambition to become a top three shipbuilding nation by 2047, the 100th year of India’s independence.

This plan coincides nicely with US President Donald Trump’s agenda to penalise Chinese shipyards with port fees on China-made vessels, presenting an opportunity for Indian yards to step in. The port fees are currently suspended until November 10, 2026.

But catching up with Chinese shipbuilding, on a volume basis, would be a big challenge for India. Xclusiv Shipbrokers analyst Dimitris Roumeliotis sees challenges in this pursuit. He said that India should instead be “aiming to become a credible tier-two builder with strengths in niche, regional and domestic tonnage”.

Roumeliotis said India’s value was in being strategically autonomous, as Western owners looked for options beyond China for political, supply chain and diversification reasons.

“Capacity in Korea and Japan is stretched. So, India could take advantage there, especially for feeders, product tankers, offshore or specialised workboats rather than large very large crude carriers or ultra large containerships.”

India has already embarked on its shipbuilding ambitions with a tie-up with South Korea’s HD Hyundai, which has a partnership with Cochin shipyard. The partnership landed a Cochin shipyard newbuilding deal linked to CMA CGM.

Puri and other Indian government officials in November visited HD Hyundai in Ulsan to strengthen maritime and shipbuilding co-operation. During the visit, Puri implored South Korea to “Make in India for the world.”

HD Hyundai in August launched a multibillion-dollar investment programme to revitalise US shipbuilding as part of the Make American Shipbuilding Great Again initiative.

With such strong US ties there, one cannot help but be puzzled by the other shipbuilding partner that India is looking at: Russia. This comes at a time when India is cutting crude oil imports to curry favour with Washington.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit New Delhi today, with a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the books along with a summit between both countries. Trade and shipbuilding are part of the agenda.

In the lead-up to this meeting, Indian and Russian officials met in Moscow on November 13, where it underscored a shared target of achieving $100bn in bilateral trade by 2030.

Indian and Russian maritime officials held another meeting in New Delhi on November 17 to deepen maritime co-operation. Shipbuilding, port development, maritime logistics and Arctic operations were discussed.

Putin’s aide and chairman of Russia’s maritime board Nikolai Patrushev called on India’s Modi the next day to discuss co-operation in the maritime sector, with shipbuilding being highlighted.

The intention to work with Russia, while puzzling, is clear. India is not shying away from developing deeper relationships with Russia, even with current challenges in its relationship with the US.

For shipbuilding, Roumeliotis sees synergies between Russia and India.

“Russian yards and design bureaus have experience in specialised segments [such as] Arctic/ice class ships, offshore energy support, harsh weather designs and areas where Indian shipbuilding has no legacy. Collaboration could help Indian yards quickly acquire designs and technical know-how for niche tonnage.”

Risks involved in this partnership — namely scrutiny from Western insurers, banks and charterers — while real, are context-dependent, according to Roumeliotis.

“There is an evolving geopolitical variable that may soften those penalties: the new Trump-backed peace initiative between Ukraine and Russia.”

Should a Trump-brokered peace deal be struck between Russia and Ukraine, India’s move to partner Russia, in both shipbuilding and even trade, could be a masterstroke.