ON paper, US military action in Venezuela is positive for long-term tanker demand, similar to how, on paper, the Project Sunrise Gaza redevelopment plan is bullish for long-term tourism demand in the eastern Mediterranean.

Venezuelan crude exports could eventually recover from 1m barrels per day to 2m-3m bpd, say the optimists.

More heavy, sour Venezuelan crude would head to US Gulf refineries, replacing waning Mexican deliveries and a portion of Canadian pipeline flows. More long-haul exports of Venezuelan crude would move on board compliant tankers to China and elsewhere.

Rising Venezuelan production would require more diluent — light, sweet crude or naphtha — which would hike export demand from the US Gulf.

As US Gulf refineries take less Canadian pipeline supplies, a higher volume of Canadian pipeline crude would go to sea as re-exports out of the US Gulf and via the TMX pipeline to British Colombia. Canada would also have more incentive to build future export capacity beyond TMX, another theoretical plus for tankers.

It will be interesting to see the Polymarket odds on this scenario, and how they compare to the chance of sipping Sauvignon blanc at a Gaza resort — because the practical realities loom large.

The reinvigoration of tanker flows from Venezuela hinges on how that country’s sovereign government responds to US aggression and when conditions will be acceptable, if ever, for the massive private investment that would be required.

The more pressing, reality-based question for tanker markets is how the US blockade plays out.

The US plan to “run” Venezuela is to pressure its government by continuing to “quarantine” its oil exports. Exports would presumably resume on non-sanctioned tonnage if Venezuela follows American orders.

Until then, the blockade has a positive, albeit limited, effect on compliant tanker trades by curtailing Chinese access to sanctioned barrels.

But the blockade is vulnerable. If tankers load in Venezuela and simultaneously depart in waves, the US does not have the capacity to catch them all. At least 16 tankers have departed Venezuela in recent days, according to the New York Times.

The broader takeaway of US military action in Venezuela — not just for tankers but for all shipping segments — is that Trump is clearly willing to use military force despite the MAGA movement’s aversion to warmongering.

This promises more geopolitical unrest, more uncertainty, and more rerouting of global cargo flows. Trump, the disruptor-in-chief of world trade, has picked up in 2026 right where he left off last year.

Greg Miller
Senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List

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