CMA CGM has reversed course on its tentative return to the Suez Canal, announcing on Tuesday that three services it had rerouted through the Red Sea since late last year will revert to the longer Cape of Good Hope passage.

The French carrier said the decision to reroute its FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services — linking Asia with Northern Europe and the Mediterranean — was taken “in light of the complex and uncertain international context”, adding that the situation would be reviewed regularly.

The move comes just months after CMA CGM began sending vessels on these routes back through the Suez Canal following a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

It also follows Maersk’s January 15 announcement that it would return its MECL service — connecting India and the Middle East to the US East Coast — to the Suez route after successful test transits by two of its vessels.

Yet the timing and scope of CMA CGM’s pullback suggest the calculus might extend beyond security concerns — even as the regional picture has grown more volatile. Iran faces ongoing domestic unrest, and the prospect of US military action against Tehran has not been ruled out, raising questions over whether Houthi forces in Yemen could resume attacks on commercial shipping.

Hua Joo Tan, co-founder of liner analytics firm Linerlytica, said CMA CGM is using the political situation as cover for what is essentially a commercial decision.

“CMA CGM are only using the political situation as an excuse,” Tan told Lloyd’s List, noting that the carrier has retained two other services on the Suez route — the India America Express, which operates in both directions, and the Phoenician Express, which never left the canal.

“The intention is to signal to the market to push back the date of a large-scale resumption of Suez services,” Tan said. “The signal is meant for Maersk.”

Tan added that the three services being rerouted were operating eastbound only and appear to have served their immediate purpose: repositioning ships and containers back to China ahead of the Lunar New Year cargo rush.

The decision comes as Asia-Europe freight rates face mounting downward pressure. Linerlytica’s latest weekly report noted that easing port congestion in Europe, combined with additional loaders and CMA CGM’s earlier eastbound Suez sailings, has increased available capacity on both Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes over the next four weeks.

“The threat of further capacity surplus arising from the reopening of the Suez routes has risen following Maersk’s decision to return its MECL service to the Suez route from January,” the report said. “Further reroutings could follow, with the Gemini Cooperation’s IMEX/ME11 ISC/ME-Med service expected to be the next to make the switch.”

According to Lloyd's List Intelligence vessel tracking data, boxship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has picked up over the past two years, though it remains a fraction of pre-crisis levels. Much of that growth had been previously driven by smaller operators expanding their Red Sea presence to capitalise on the void left by major carriers.

A full-scale return to the Suez would release significant tonnage back into the market. HSBC estimates that Red Sea diversions absorbed roughly 7%–8% of global container fleet capacity; as voyages shorten, that buffer will unwind, potentially dragging spot rates lower and weighing on transpacific contract negotiations due in April and May.

Nevertheless, HSBC cautioned that further Houthi strikes or worsening tensions in Gaza could delay any industry-wide return to the Suez. The bank also noted that diversions away from the Red Sea played out over roughly three months starting in late 2023, and a full return would likely take a similar period.

“A swift transition to the Red Sea could cause port congestions in Europe from the bunching of ships reaching via COGH and Red Sea, which could support near-term freight rates,” said HSBC. “However, a gradual return over several months could mitigate any disruptions.”