CMA CGM’S decision to pull back on its Red Sea transits surprised many in the industry, not least because the French carrier had been the only major container line to consistently run the corridor throughout the crisis.

But this is a U-turn guided more by commercial complexity than a shift in security assumptions, and thus is unlikely to affect the wider industry move back towards the Red Sea.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows that December recorded the highest volume of boxship capacity through the Bab el Mandeb since January 2024, as operators tested the route with larger vessels. 

In recent weeks, major box carriers have continued to test the water, and nothing in CMA CGM’s announcement suggests that trend is about to reverse.

The broader security backdrop also supports continued cautious re-entry. The Houthis’ self declared embargo on attacks against commercial shipping remains in place, and the last confirmed strike occurred more than three months ago. This extended lull has encouraged operators to reassess the risks of returning, even if the economic incentives of Cape diversions remain. 

Maersk has already completed two successful voyages, one in late December and another on January 12. CMA CGM itself completed a successful ultra-large tonnage transit in November. The CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin (IMO: 9706891) became the first ULC to transit the Red Sea in nearly two years when it passed through in November. A similar ad hoc sailing was conducted by the carrier last month. The Suez Canal Authority has even stated that CMA CGM committed to a full return by this month, although the carrier did not confirm this publicly. This weeks’ announcement perhaps underlines this lack of committal.

Momentum is also visible in new service launches and operational planning. Ocean Network Express has introduced a new Red Sea-China service, driven by rising demand for direct connections between China and Red Sea ports, with voyages scheduled to begin this month. Israeli carrier Zim is also preparing to resume Red Sea transits pending insurance clearance, and operational preparations are already underway.

Even where caution persists — ONE’s new service avoids the Suez Canal, for example, the direction of travel is clear.

CMA CGM’s latest decision to reroute select services through the Red Sea is being presented publicly as a response to a “complex and uncertain international context.” Yet the carrier’s wording is notable for what it does not say. There is no explicit reference to security, no suggestion of a deteriorating threat environment, and no indication that the safety picture in the Red Sea has materially changed.

That ambiguity has raised eyebrows. Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey argues that such a vague explanation “only invites more questions than answers,” particularly at a time when the Red Sea and surrounding region appear to be stabilising.

While it is possible that CMA CGM has access to intelligence that contradicts the broader stability narrative, it is also highly unlikely that any such information would not be unknown to other major carriers, who continue to run ad hoc sailings and adjust services without hesitation.

As he puts it, CMA CGM’s wording could apply to almost any region of the world, but it does not, on its own, justify a return to the longer Cape of Good Hope routing.

Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen also sees little in the security landscape that would explain CMA CGM’s move. 

The Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping have long been understood as an extension of Iran’s regional influence. Jensen noted that domestic unrest in Iran, and the possibility of US involvement, could, in theory, prompt the Houthis to escalate again. 

“If the Americans get more directly involved in Iran’s internal situation, the Houthis could use that as justification to resume their embargo,” he said. But aside from that hypothetical, he sees no meaningful change. A brief flare up in southern Yemen between UAE and Saudi-aligned factions does not directly affect Red Sea navigation, he added.

“So unless carriers have intelligence suggesting the Houthis are about to resume attacks, I don’t see what new security factor would justify a sudden shift,” Jensen said.

Instead, he argues, the operational pattern behind CMA CGM’s decision points to a very different motivation, and one that mirrors other analysts thoughts that this is very much commercially driven. 

Speaking to Lloyd’s List earlier on Tuesday, Hua Joo Tan, co-founder of liner analytics firm Linerlytica, stated that the Marseille-based carrier is “only using the political situation as an excuse,” highlighting how CMA CGM has retained two other services on the Suez route.

He stressed that the motive here is a signal to Maersk, and others in the market, “to push back the date of a large-scale resumption of Suez services.”
Jensen does not go as far as Tan in interpreting the decision as a strategic message to rivals, but he agrees that the timing is central to understanding CMA CGM’s actions.

Around a month ago, the carrier began routing its MEX service through the Red Sea only on the backhaul into Asia, while keeping the cargo-heavy, transit sensitive headhaul on the longer Cape of Good Hope route.

“That baffled me,” Jensen said. “If this were really about security, why keep the headhaul on the long route? That’s where speed matters most.”

He argued that the timing of CMA CGM’s reversal aligns almost perfectly with the run up to Chinese New Year. Vessels that have already taken the Red Sea shortcut will arrive in China just in time to load peak export volumes. 

“What I see here is a capacity play,” Jensen said. “CMA CGM is positioning as much tonnage as possible to capture Chinese New Year demand. Once that mission is accomplished, there’s no need to fast track the backhaul ships anymore.”

The pattern, he explained, also echoes a reversal of what many contemplate will occur in the event of a resumption in Red Sea sailings, whereby the shortcut vessels will overtake those routed around Africa. Whereas this would create a spike in European port arrivals, this play by CMA CGM has created a temporary spike in arrivals at Asian load ports. 

“This is a variation of that theme,” Jensen explained. “It’s a tactical way to boost capacity in a very specific window.”

So what comes after the Chinese New Year? 

Jensen expects carriers, CMA CGM included, to begin edging back toward the Red Sea from early March, provided, of course, the security picture holds steady. 

“The base case is a slow normalisation after Chinese New Year,” he said. “Most carriers will want to restore the shorter route once the seasonal rush is over.”

Even if a more coordinated shift begins in March, a full northerly migration will take months to work through the system given the scale of global networks. And unless an Iran-linked escalation unsettles the fragile stability now in place, the path toward full normalisation continues to gather momentum despite CMA CGM’s impromptu Red Sea reversal.