THE US takeover of Venezuela’s crude oil exports is in full swing, promising a shift of volume from shadow fleet* tankers to compliant tonnage.

Venezuelan crude exports to the US through the Chevron licence continue, US naphtha is headed to Venezuela for use as diluent, and sanctioned Venezuelan crude is moving to Caribbean storage facilities, where it is being marketed for sale by trading houses Trafigura and Vitol.

That said, there are still tankers trying to run the US blockade. The US is seeking to transition to a market in which it controls Venezuelan export flows as it simultaneously chases down the cargoes it doesn’t yet control.

US Southern Command announced that it seized the sanctioned aframax Sagitta (IMO: 9296822) in the Caribbean on Tuesday morning. It was the seventh seizure since the blockade was enacted last month.

“The apprehension of another tanker operating in defiance of President Trump’s established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean demonstrates our resolve to ensure that the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully,” said Southcom.

Shift to Caribbean storage

“The headline here is the re-emergence of the Caribbean as a key outlet,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa, during a Vortexa online presentation on Tuesday prior to the Southcom announcement.

Since the US blockade of Venezuelan exports began on December 10, “around 20% of Venezuela’s seaborne crude exports have moved into Caribbean destinations, including the Bahamas, Curaçao and St Lucia”, she said.

“That shift isn’t about end demand; it’s about clearing and logistics under pressure. Trading houses have received and moved Venezuelan crude into Caribbean storage facilities this month as part of licensed trade and repositioning activity, consistent with the new export arrangements under US supervision.

“The Caribbean is functioning as a staging and holding area. Cargoes are moving into Caribbean hubs to buy time, whether it’s waiting for downstream buyers or resale opportunities, or waiting for greater clarity around sanctions enforcement and licensing conditions, given the rapidly evolving regulatory backdrop,” she explained.

Vortexa is tracking both Venezuelan oil on the water and the percentage seized by the US. Oil on the water remains high, at around 70m barrels, while the share seized has increased from 5% in mid-December to almost 9% currently.

“Even with the seizures, the vast majority of oil on the water remains unseized, leaving meaningful volumes either exposed to further interdiction or poised for re-export or legitimate movement once greater policy clarity emerges.

“Taken together, the picture here is not one of flows stopping; it’s one of flows rerouting. The Caribbean has become the focal point because it offers optionality under pressure, even as enforcement tightens.”

It is still early in the transition, and uncertainty remains high, as highlighted by Tuesday’s seizure of Sagitta.

“The combination of elevated oil on the water, rising seizures and increased Caribbean staging suggests continued volatility and execution risk rather than stabilisation out of Venezuela,” said Jungman.

Venezuela tanker movements

Vessel-position data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Seasearcher and cargo data from Vortexa show a flurry of recent moves related to the transitional Caribbean storage strategy.

The sanctioned aframax Volans (IMO: 9422988) loaded 558,285 barrels of Merey crude in Venezuela on December 24; the ship was at anchor until January 17, when it moved to Curaçao.

The sanctioned aframax Jamaica (IMO: 9230098) loaded 453,470 barrels in Venezuela on January 1 and discharged in Curaçao on January 18.

The very large crude carrier Kelly (IMO: 9191400) loaded 1.8m barrels on December 14, remained at anchor after the US blockade was enacted, and set sail on January 13, arriving in St Lucia on January 18.

The VLCC Marbella (IMO: 9222455) loaded 1.6m barrels on January 11 and arrived in the Bahamas on January 19; it is currently discharging.

The VLCC Rene (IMO: 9250622) loaded 1.3m barrels on December 31 and is en route to the Bahamas; it is currently passing through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Hispaniola.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude bound for the US under the Chevron licence, using aframaxes, is ongoing.

Carina Voyager (IMO: 9897834) loaded 569,528 barrels on January 10 and arrived in Louisiana on Tuesday.

Ionic Anax (IMO: 9802152) loaded 685,904 barrels on January 11 and is due to arrive in Texas on Thursday. Nave Neutrino (IMO: 9971733) loaded 566,482 barrels on January 13 and is due to arrive in Texas on Friday. 

Minerva Astra (IMO: 9893008) loaded 118,350 barrels on January 15 and is due to arrive in Texas on January 25.

On the Venezuela import side, the product tanker Hellespont Protector (IMO: 9351452) loaded 319,767 barrels of naphtha in Houston on January 11 and is due to arrive in Venezuela on Friday.

Long-term upside potential

The stage is set for a more substantial shift from sanctioned to unsanctioned flows — assuming the US can successfully control Venezuelan exports. Longer term, the devil’s advocate question is: will the US Navy/US Coast Guard blockade be a permanent deployment, and if not, how would the US permanently control Venezuelan crude export flows?

“In Venezuela, the prospect of the US controlling exports could add 500,000-600,000 barrels per day of heavy sour crude to global markets,” said Clarkson Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal.

Braemar Research said in a report in Monday: “The removal of [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro, blockade of Venezuelan exports on shadow tankers and control over Venezuela’s exports by the US administration pushes demand onto the compliant fleet.

“Replacing Venezuelan crude in China will boost demand for compliant VLCCs. Putting aside the question of US investment increasing Venezuela’s production, Venezuela’s current 800,000 bpd is likely to shift from shadow VLCCs to the compliant aframax fleet bound for the US.”

Braemar estimated that Venezuelan crude exports could rise to 1m bpd by the end of 1Q26, 1.2m bpd by the end of this year, and 1.9m bpd by the end of 2028.

If Venezuelan supply displaces Canadian crude that arrives in the US Gulf region by pipeline, “this would increase Canadian crude exports from the US Gulf — currently 420,000 bpd — to either Asia or Europe”.

“We think it is more likely that light-sweet WTI [West Texas Intermediate] would be pushed to the export market, given that Canadian crude is heavy and sour, and desirable for US Gulf refineries,” said Braemar.

“Europe’s crude demand is not growing, and it would be unlikely to take on more lighter crudes [as] Europe is long on gasoline and short on middle distillate. We think it is most likely that WTI dislodged from the US Gulf would be sent to Asia refiners — a big positive for tonne-mile gains on compliant ships.”