AMID the long list of disruptions, risks and general anxiety over that fact that a renewed trade conflict will hit growth, there remains a surprising resilience in the global economy. 

The slew of polls, forecasts and macro prognostication on offer as world leaders arrive in Davos is to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, but, for those of an optimistic disposition there is much to celebrate amid the doom and gloom.  

Global trade is expected to grow as fast or faster in 2026 than it did last year, fuelled partly by China’s expansion in markets aligned with the Global South, according to a DP World survey released Tuesday.

It seems that those responsible for moving world trade are more optimistic about trade growth prospects than the economists or most of the politicians.

In total, 54% expect trade growth to be faster than 2025 (40% expect it to be equal). 

Compare that with the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast that predicts trade growth (by volume) could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. 

What is clear to everyone is that global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. But it seems that those responsible for global logistics are more bullish about their ability to keep trade moving regardless of whatever barriers are now coming their way.

Shipping’s Red Sea return could yet be further delayed by a relapse in security conditions, but decisions are currently more being driven by capacity calculations and trading dynamics. There is market complexity ahead and CMA CGM’s surprising U-turn today should be viewed in the context of market complexity and agility rather than Houthi concerns.

For those responding to the DP World survey, volatility is a given — their prospects this year are largely down to how effectively they can adapt their supply chains. 

Most (53%) expect high or very high policy uncertainty and 47% expect trade barriers to rise this year, but resilience seems to be an early contender for the corporate buzzword of 2026.

“At the moment, our sentiment is relatively optimistic,” Mitsui OSK Lines chief Takeshi Hashimoto told Bloomberg TV as he rocked up in Davos on Tuesday amid slumping stocks and a sliding dollar.

Trump may be the headline, and will likely continue to be the focus for the rest of the year. But supplier diversification (51%), higher inventories (44%) and friend-shoring (36%) are cited among the most common strategic shifts planned for 2026.

Chaos and complexity are now fully baked into corporate planning. What we’re seeing reflected in these surveys is a growing confidence in the contingency plans that have at least partly embedded resilience into strategy, or at least enhanced the required agility to deal with it.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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