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Tankers and Gas Russian Federation Red Sea Risk

Pressure mounts on Russian oil exports, a positive for compliant VLCCs

  • Reduced EU/UK price cap, at $44.10 per barrel, now in effect for Russian crude exports
  • Freight premium for aframax Russian cargoes vs non-Russian baseline is down sharply vs 2H25 average, according to Argus data
  • Combined volume of Russian crude and products exports in January was lowest since February 2025 and second lowest since September 2021, according to Vortexa data 

  • Analysis

January tanker and oil data confirms that Western pressure is having a material impact on Russian exports. On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India, including a pledge by India to stop buying Russian crude — which would squeeze Russian volumes and pricing even more

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