AI disruption risk is taking centre stage on Wall Street; software companies are the latest flashpoint. Being in a capital-intensive, asset-heavy business is a plus in times like these.

“We are told that we live in an increasingly dematerialised world, where ever more value lies in intangible items, [but] the physical world continues to underpin everything else,” wrote author Ed Conway in his book, “Material World”.

All of the intangibles rely on raw materials for physical infrastructure and energy — demand for raw materials is rising, not falling — and much of the money earned from selling intangibles is used to buy goods.

No matter what happens with AI, raw materials, components and finished goods will still need to move around the globe, and as the geopolitical order splinters, cargoes will move in increasingly inefficient ways. It’s no surprise that shipping stocks are having a moment.

But the current market for shipping stocks does not have the same heady feel as in the 2000s. Investors are far less naive about the highly cyclical nature of shipping than they used to be.

The majority of shipping’s “long only” investors today are the company founders and insiders; the majority of non-insider investors are fair-weather friends.

The resurgence of shipping share prices in 2025 and early 2026 comes at a time when the number of public shipping companies is falling due to take-private transactions. There hasn’t been a US shipping IPO since Zim in January 2021, a half-decade ago. Zim could also soon be taken private.

There were a lot of grand plans for shipping equities discussed at ship finance conferences in decades past: talk of mega-shipping companies, shipping divisions within giant conglomerates, entrenched long-only money, through-cycle stability — shipping as a “blue chip” category in US public markets.

This never came to pass and probably never will, and that’s fine. There’s no shortage of private investment. Just ask Gianluigi Aponte.

There’s nothing wrong with being a niche Wall Street segment, and there are plenty of trading profits to be had by hedge funds and retail traders during upcycles, like the one crude tankers are enjoying now.

For today’s stock pickers, there’s also an added appeal: shipping offers a shelter amid the technological and geopolitical storm.

Shipping is a vital cog in the “Material World” described by Conway, who maintained: “Far from being independent from the physical world around us, we have never been more reliant upon it.”

Greg Miller
Senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List

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