THE European Union’s proposed maritime services ban will see the remaining 20% of Russian crude oil transits on tankers owned or insured by EU entities, moved on to the shadow fleet*.

While the slated move to replace a Russian oil price cap with a ban on the services is being contested by at least three EU member states and significant details are yet to be agreed, the ban is widely expected to be approved before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The UK is expected to mirror the agreement if it is passed by the EU.

By cutting off access to EU and UK insurance and reinsurance markets, the ban will remove all European-owned and -insured vessels from being able to legally lift Russian crude oil. Non-EU and UK-owned vessels will continue to be able to lift the oil, but any vessel carrying Russian oil will have to buy insurance that has no touch point EU financial services, effectively moving the trade onto the shadow fleet.

Even draft text of the ban is yet to be circulated, however, announcing the proposal on February 6, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen specified the ban was to target Russian crude oil.

With the price caps for the export of refined products having remained above international refined product prices for much of the past two years, such a move would, however, likely see mainstream tankers, which export a significant portion of Russian refined products, forced to leave Russian trade.

Commission officials are negotiating internally with Greece and Malta after both states pushed back on the proposal, but also with G7 partner states. Von der Leyen has stated that the EU will enact the ban in coordination with like-minded partners. However, so far only the UK is known to be on board with the plan.

While US officials discussed the possibility of joining the EU in December, those negotiations are understood to have stalled.

Significant details in the maritime services ban plan remain unconfirmed, including the timing of implementation, whether oil products could also be added and whether the ban will account for long-term contracts to be wound down, reducing the known risk of commercial litigation exposure for several EU entities.

According to Lloyd’s List analysis EU-owned or -controlled tankers still accounted for 19% of Russian liftings last month with the vast majority of those tankers controlled by Greek entities.

Speaking to Lloyd’s List, one prominent Greek shipowner who continues to lift Russian crude under the current oil price cap rules agreed that if the ban goes ahead it would be an end to European engagement in Russian trades and a complete switch to the shadow fleet.

However, the owner predicted that Russian oil would continue to flow, albeit initially in smaller quantities as the shadow fleet reconfigured away from Venezuela into Russian trades.

If Russia is to maintain its crude exports at January 2026 levels, the ban would nominally require an additional 17 suezmax and 22 aframax/LR2 tankers to be pulled into the shadow fleet from the compliant fleet, according to Braemar Research senior tanker analyst Mary Melton.

Melton estimates that Russia’s existing dark fleet can only handle 80% of western Russia’s exports, meaning that demand for vintage tankers to enter the shadow fleet will likely spike if the ban is agreed.

Lloyd’s List understands that the commission is considering new measures to prevent any exodus of European-owned vessels into the shadow fleet as a result of the ban. However, no details on how such a mechanism would operate have been revealed.

The commission is also understood to be adding pressure on flag state authorities to tighten up checks for insurance arrangements on tankers.

Since the sanction-driven pullback, a handful of Russian insurers have stepped into the gap, providing hull and liability cover, P&I-style services, or at least the documentation that allows ports and brokers to process voyages. A full maritime services ban would effectively force all Russian crude-carrying tankers into such arrangements, or increase the volume of tankers operating without insurance.

Speculation has been building for several weeks that the forthcoming 20th sanctions package may also be accompanied by a series of interdictions of fraudulently flagged tankers to reinforce the new approach.

To maintain crude exports Russia will need to either take compliant ships into the shadow fleet or hope that its existing dark fleet is quickly released from floating storage.

According to Melton, 16.7m barrels of Russian crude oil is currently sitting in floating storage as India and the Chinese state-owned refiners dial back imports.

That is currently tying up nine aframax/LR2s, eight suezmaxes, and one VLCC. Floating storage is currently at 16.7m barrels, having risen by 13.3m barrels (nearly fivefold) since the beginning of December.