IN AN era of great power rivalry where the strong can do what they like, and the weak must suffer what they must, quiet diplomacy is out of vogue. 

The recent surge in shadow fleet registration shifts proves that diplomatic pressure, applied in the right places, can still pack a punch when it comes to maritime risk. 

When Gambia ejected 71 ships late last year after a series of unpublicised meetings, there was an inevitability to what would happen next. Those sanctioned, shadow fleet and fraudulently certified ships quickly switched to a familiar list of willing registers.

Cameroon, one of the highest risk registers in the world according to port state control figures, has ingested a steady stream of almost exclusively sanctioned tonnage over recent months. Pressure from Brussels, however, has prompted a rethink of that strategy in Yaoundé. That influx is about to become another exodus in search of flag cover. 

There are plenty of remaining registers available, but the pool is diminishing, even as the speed of flag-hopping increases.

US pressure on Panama forced a purge of Iranian associations last year. Quieter European pressure has seen de-flagging operations everywhere from Comoros to Gabon. 

The outlier remains Russia itself which has been steadily taking in previously stateless vessels as it builds up its register which has swollen by over 40% in tonnage terms since the invasion of Ukraine. That trend is not going to be reversed by polite ambassadorial visits to consulates.

The forthcoming maritime services ban is expected to push all remaining EU-compliant trades into the shadow fleet and a significant portion of that trade will end up flagged directly by Russia. 

Russia has already stated that it is willing to deploy naval power to “ensure the safety of navigation on strategic maritime routes”. Those words of warning were issued as the EU was quietly briefing its partners that stateless vessels were to be considered legitimate targets for interception and seizure. 

The flag-hopping realignment of trade is far from over, but it is increasingly gravitating towards geopolitical affiliation and away from political pressure points.

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