THE shadow fleet* has started the year under pressure. Millions of barrels of unsold Iranian and Russian crude have accumulated in storage due to buyers switching to unsanctioned barrels at reasonable prices.

But as the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine looms, a step change in sanctions enforcement has the potential to disrupt shadow fleet trades much more dramatically.

The US is rumoured to be looking at more shadow fleet targets to intercept and usher off to the scrapyards.

Meanwhile, there is a crackdown looming in Europe, and this time they are serious.

The EU’s long-trailed shift to a full maritime services ban still has hit a few political hurdles, but the immediate direction of EU policy promises to significantly ratchet up the sanctions imposed on Russian oil.

This increased pressure coincides with an influx of shadow fleet tonnage back into the Russian flag, a lot of which switched following US intervention in Venezuela.

That Moscow is keeping a closer eye on its fleet may be evidence that Europe’s pressure (not to mention US boardings) is working and the shadow fleet is beginning to feel the heat.

Speaking on this week’s edition of the Lloyd’s List podcast:

• Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst

• Tomer Raanan, maritime risk analyst

• Richard Meade, editor-in-chief