Slow pace of tariff refunds could mute container shipping upside
- Tax Foundation estimates that the US already collected over $160bn in IEEPA tariffs; Baker Tilly says ultimate amount will be at least $200bn and might top $300bn
- Refunds of IEEPA tariffs could stretch over one to three years, predicts Baker Tilly
- Section 122 tariffs could take in $22bn-$33bn over the next 150 days; these levies will likely face a court challenge
A mega-refund of tariffs to US importers should be a tailwind for container shipping sentiment and demand. However, if refunds stretch across a multiyear period, the market effect would be limited