THE shipping industry has been warned to avoid navigating through a US established “maritime warning zone” that covers the Middle East Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

In a notice issued by US Navy Central Command in the early hours of Saturday morning, ships were warned against navigating within this area, if possible.

The statement explained that the US Navy could not guarantee the safety of neutral or merchant shipping. Merchant ships should navigate no closer than 30 nautical miles from a naval vessel, the statement explained.

The naval advisory, which has subsequently been distributed by flag states and security firms globally, recommend that, “aircraft and ships keep clear of the designated area”.

Jamming and spoofing of satellite navigation systems is likely, according to multiple advisories issued by regional naval operations and industry security sources.

Greece’s Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Insular Policy issued an urgent advisory on Saturday for all Greek-flagged vessels to exercise maximum vigilance and avoid key shipping lanes following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Non-essential EU personnel are being withdrawn from the region and the EU’s Aspides naval mission is on high alert in the Red Sea.

In a statement, Aspides warned shipping to “stay vigilant and be aware that attacks against all shipping can’t be excluded”.

EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas described the situation as “perilous” and said that Aspides stands ready to help keep the maritime corridor open.

Shipping industry security officials have warned that the direct threat to shipping in the region remains high.

Multiple vessels of all types have been observed turning around in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.

Houthi response

In an urgent advisory issued by tanker owners association Intertanko, the body warned members that “the expectation is that the Houthis may respond and recommence attacks on shipping”, but stressed that immediate intelligence was “unclear”.

“Similarly, there is also a widespread belief that the Iranians would not close the Strait of Hormuz, but would seek to seize ships with interests related to the belligerents,” warned Intertanko.

“The US/Israeli attack on Iran dramatically increases the security risk to ships operating in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters,” warned chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, Jakob Larsen.

Ships with business connections to US or Israeli interests are more likely to be targeted, but other ships may also be targeted deliberately or in error, Larsen said.

Ships already in the area are expected to seek refuge in territorial waters of neutral States in the area such as United Arab Emirates or Qatar, and some ships may also want to try to leave the area entirely.

Ships underway to the immediate conflict area are likely to stay away until the situation stabilises again.

The immediate threat of shipping infrastructure being hit in the assault, which the Pentagon has dubbed Operation Epic Fury, was unclear as of Saturday morning.

Kharg Island

According Reuters reports, explosions were heard near Iran’s Kharg Island. Iran exports 90% of its crude oil via Kharg, for shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

While the immediate focus for shipping companies will be to navigate the security hot spots, BIMCO has already warned that shipping insurance rates are set to increase “manyfold, and ships with business connections to US or Israel approaching the area are probably not going to be able to get insurance”.

The Iranian naval forces have capabilities designed to disrupt shipping in and out of the Middle East Gulf. In the short term it is assessed that Iran will be able to coerce commercial shipping to decide against entering the conflict area.

It is assessed that within few days US air and naval superiority will eventually establish a level of security which will enable commercial shipping to resume transport in and out of the Middle East Gulf and adjacent waters, said BIMCO’s Larsen.