OIL and gas carriers were berthed in Iranian terminals on Monday, while outbound tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz essentially ground to a halt.

Satellite imagery suggested three vessels were berthed in export berths in Assaluyeh and Tonbak on Monday, while the sanctioned VLCC Star Forest (IMO: 9237632) was identified by US-monitoring group United Against Nuclear Iran in Iran’s Kharg Island. The three suspected vessels loading LPG were seen on synthetic aperture radar imagery and could not be identified.

It remains to be seen whether the vessels would attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz, where Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows overall traffic had fallen by over 80% on Sunday amid the ongoing war and threats to shipping.

According to Vortexa, Iran loaded over 2m barrels of crude and condensate in February, a near-record pace since sanctions were reimposed during the first Trump administration. The rush to get cargoes on the water was likely in anticipation that negotiations with the US would fail and military conflict would ensue.

It was not immediately clear how much of that oil has sailed past the Strait of Hormuz prior to the war’s outbreak, but the anchorages near Iran’s key export terminals in Kharg Island were relatively empty on Monday compared with Friday, satellite imagery showed. TankersTrackers.com said in a social media post that tankers anchored off Kharg Island last week were seen dispersed across Iran’s Exclusive Economic Zone on Monday.

One of the few oil and gas carriers that did transit the strait on Sunday was a VLGC laden with Iranian liquefied petroleum gas.

However, at least half a dozen shadow fleet* gas carriers that arrived in the Gulf of Oman in the days since the war started have remained at anchor south of the strait, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed. This suggests that operators in Iran’s shadow fleet are also wary of being attacked.

Given that at least one of the vessels that was struck so far — Skylight (IMO: 9396737) — was a shadow fleet tanker sanctioned by the US over Iran links, that caution appears to be warranted.

Meanwhile, the IRGC on Monday claimed responsibility for striking the Honduras-flagged Athe Nova (IMO: 9188116), which has a history of spoofing its Automatic Identification System data, a common practice for Iran-trading vessels.

The claimed attack could not be immediately verified, and no alert was published by the UK Maritime Trade Operations.

Four vessels struck

According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, at least four vessels have been struck since war broke on Saturday after Israel and the US launched strikes against Iran, which retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East. Another vessel reported a “near miss” but did not suffer damage.

An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander reportedly announced in a televised speech on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that the IRGC and Iran’s navy would “set fire” to ships crossing the strait.

But the fiery statement, which comes a day after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly said Iran did not plan to close the strait, comes as the critical waterway has already been de-facto abandoned by shipping either due to self-imposed safety concerns or lack of war risk insurance.

Meanwhile, Fox News said US Central Command has rebuked the IRGC’s claims, stating that the strait was open and that there was no indication yet that Iran had mined the key chokepoint. Centcom said in a social media post on Monday that it had sunk 11 Iranian naval ships in the Gulf of Oman.

Commenting on the IRGC’s commanders’ remarks, maritime risk management firm Vanguard said on Monday that there was “no verified indication of a formally enacted blockade or disruption to commercial traffic”.

“However, such rhetoric elevates the maritime threat environment in this critical chokepoint and increases the risk of escalation.”

On Monday (March 2), leading ship insurers from across the International Group of P&I Clubs issued notices cancelling war risk coverage for Iranian waters, the Middle East Gulf, adjacent areas, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the notice period agreed, the cancellations will take effect at midnight on Thursday. However, new rates and terms are already being finalised, albeit at significantly increased sums.

Despite the risks, Lloyd’s List understands that a small group of shipowners has expressed a willingness to resume transits at night and with AIS switched off, and were confident that insurance could be found.

The discussions were highly speculative and did not lead to any fixtures by Monday, Lloyd’s List was told.