LLOYD’S List Intelligence data indicates around 250 internationally trading bulk carriers are stranded in the Middle East Gulf following the effective shutdown of transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

More than half of the dry cargo carrier vessel fleet, of above 25,000 dwt, is now at anchor while 67 bulkers are alongside at regional ports. A further 55 vessels are moving at reduced speed, as owners wait to decide their next move.

The disruption is hitting mid-sized bulkers hardest. There are 77 kamsarmax/panamax vessels currently in the MEG, followed by 69 supramax/ultramax ships effectively in limbo.

In other segments, the fleet includes 22 handymax, 60 large handysize, 16 post-panamax and six capesize or mini-capesize vessels still in the MEG.

In common with the tanker sector, Greek shipowners have the heaviest exposure to the MEG with 27.5% of the bulk carrier fleet currently west of the Strait of Hormuz, in dwt terms, attributed to Greece.     

China follows with 15% of dwt, ahead of the United Arab Emirates with 8.2% and Japan with 7.2%. 

At a company level, Germany’s Oldendorff Carriers currently has the largest presence in the MEG. Its fleet there includes one mini-capesize and two kamsarmax bulkers, plus four self-unloading bulk carriers. However, three of these self-unloaders are permanently stationed in the region and do not typically transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Other notable exposures include Greece’s Star Bulk Carriers and Modion Maritime Management, with six bulkers each, while Iolcos Hellenic Maritime Enterprises has three vessels in the region, comprising two post-panamaxes and one panamax.

Shipbroker BRS notes that while global market attention has largely centred on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the wider MEG also plays a critical role in the dry bulk shipping market.

According to BRS, the region is one of the few areas globally that combines significant dry bulk export and import activity, with volumes on both sides of the trade continuing to expand.

“The Middle East Gulf remains one of the few regions globally that combines substantial dry bulk export and import activity, both of which are growing,” the broker added.

The MEG supports a broad mix of cargo movements and vessel sizes. Ports across the region handle ships ranging from handysize vessels to capesize bulk carriers, reflecting the diversity of trade flows.

These activities span a wide range of commodities, including limestone exports and agricultural imports such as corn, underlining the region’s importance for multiple segments of the dry bulk fleet.

BRS warned that any extended disruption to shipping activity in the MEG would likely have a measurable impact on the wider dry bulk sector.

“Any prolonged disruption to the region would leave a tangible imprint on the dry bulk sector,” the company said.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt nearly 30m tonnes of dry bulk trade per month, threatening more than 1,000bn tonne-miles of shipping demand, according to Rishal Sharan, director of bulk research at Drewry.

Sharan said that the disruption represents over 7% of global dry bulk shipping demand, highlighting the shipping industry’s significant exposure to instability in the region.

“The Middle East is a major dry bulk trading hub,” Sharan said, noting that the region imports more than 150m tonnes of dry bulk commodities annually, including grain, iron ore, coal, sugar, rice, steel products, cement and clinker. At the same time, it exports a similar combined volume of fertiliser, gypsum, limestone and other minor bulk commodities.

The average haul length for international dry bulk trade linked to the region is around 6,000 nautical miles, with export cargoes primarily destined for India, China, the US, Europe, Canada and Brazil. Imports into the region originate mainly from Russia, India, China, Türkiye and the US.

Sharan noted that supramax bulk carriers are particularly exposed, with more than 40% of Middle East-linked dry bulk trade carried on vessels in this segment.

Despite the risks, some factors could partially support demand. Vessel diversions away from the Red Sea and around the Cape of Good Hope could increase voyage distances, while higher oil and gas prices may prompt some substitution toward coal, potentially boosting demand for supramax and panamax bulk carriers.

In addition to cargo flows, vessel exposure in the region remains substantial. Dry bulk vessels conduct around 7,000 transits through the Strait of Hormuz each year, equivalent to roughly 20 transits per day, showing the scale of the sector’s dependence on the key maritime chokepoint.

BIMCO shipping analysis manager Filipe Gouveia noted that the MEG is a critical supplier of agricultural and industrial inputs, providing 45% of global sulphur shipments and 27% of global urea exports to markets worldwide.

“If disruptions in the area remain for an extended period, and especially if ships stop transiting the strait altogether, the dry bulk market could weaken, particularly in segments other than capesize,” he said.

He noted that import demand from countries in the MEG would likely fall because overland alternatives would struggle to replace maritime transport capacity. At the same time, finding alternative suppliers for certain exports, particularly limestone, could be challenging in the medium term due to the limited number of global producers.