THE latest Hormuz transits by China-linked vessels appear confined to shipping’s opaque fringes, as mainstream state-owned fleets reroute crude carriers to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data shows that following a surge in Hormuz transits on March 10 and consecutive vessel attacks the following day, traffic through the strait has slowed markedly. China-linked vessels have followed this trend.

From March 1 to March 15, a total of 11 China-linked vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz. Four of these transits occurred between March 10-11, but only one has passed through in the four days since. Notably, apart from one exception, all have been bulkers or general cargoships — no tankers operated by mainstream Chinese owners have made the passage.

The few China-linked vessels that have transited the strait have also revealed the ambiguous nature of what counts as “Chinese” in the current environment.

The most recent was Bailian Star (IMO: 9250218), a 76,634 dwt bulker that passed through from west to east on March 12. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, both its registered owner and technical manager are Bailian Star Shipping, registered in the Marshall Islands, while the beneficial owner is unknown.

While vessel registry records do not show clear Chinese ownership, the ship broadcast the message “CHINESE CREW N OWNER” via AIS during transit.

The sole tanker to make the passage was Skywave (IMO: 9328716), a US-sanctioned VLCC that entered the Gulf of Oman on March 11. It too broadcast its “Chinese owner” identity via AIS, though no information on its ownership, operator or management company can be found in vessel databases.

The overall slowdown in transiting reflects growing caution among Chinese shipowners as they weigh operational pressures against safety risks, insurance uncertainties and domestic political sensitivities.

A senior executive responsible for insurance at one of China’s major state-owned shipping conglomerates said the company has been holding daily group meetings where commercial and safety departments have clashed over whether to send vessels through the strait.

“The commercial side wants to transit given current freight rates, but the safety department insists on putting safety first,” the executive told Lloyd’s List.

“Insurance is also a key concern. Coverage is available inside the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but transit insurance through the strait itself remains very fluid. Brokers are giving us informal verbal quotes, but the situation changes daily, especially after last week’s string of attacks.”

Incident adds to concerns — but with caveats

An incident involving Source Blessing (IMO: 9243198) on March 12 has added to Chinese shipowners’ anxiety, though it is an imperfect illustration of the risks they face. The vessel, operated under Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk’s Gemini Alliance, has Chinese ownership and had broadcast a “China Owner” signal via AIS before the incident. It was struck by falling debris while sailing from the Middle East Gulf toward Jebel Ali in the UAE, causing a fire that crew quickly brought under control.

Critically, however, Source Blessing was not transiting the Strait of Hormuz at the time. Hapag-Lloyd confirmed that the vessel had not been directly attacked. The incident appeared more a case of collateral damage than a targeted strike on a Chinese-linked ship.

Still, the distinction has done little to calm nerves.

Unverified rumours have since circulated among Chinese shipowners that transit now requires case-by-case negotiations with intermediaries and Iranian authorities, with vessels allegedly required to pay transit fees and submit vessel names, IMO numbers and voyage plans before being allowed through.

Chinese shipowners also harbour concerns that even if Iran forms a clear and unified position not to target Chinese vessels, there remains the possibility of being caught in crossfire from US or Israeli forces — a fear that the Source Blessing episode, however imprecise as a precedent, has only reinforced.

Political sensitivities

For China’s state-owned shipping giants, political considerations add another layer of complexity.

The insurance executive noted that with China’s annual Two Sessions political meetings held in Beijing over the past two weeks, the risk of having a company vessel attacked — particularly a tanker with significant fire and pollution risks — and making headline news would carry severe reputational consequences.

“Leaders of these state-owned enterprises would not take such risks during the Two Sessions,” the executive said. “After the meetings concluded last week, they will now likely need to consult with various ministries to understand whether Chinese vessels can actually transit.”

The person added that the signals coming from Iran still appear unclear and have not explicitly stated that Chinese ships can pass.

Media reports have emerged that Iran is considering an arrangement to allow certain tankers through the strait, on condition that related oil transactions are settled in Chinese yuan. However, some Chinese analysts view this proposal as more symbolic than operationally feasible, and potentially damaging to China-US relations before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing.

Complicating matters further, Trump suggested in a recent interview with the Financial Times that he may delay the trip, scheduled for March 31-April 2, as he seeks China’s help to unblock the strait. Some observers interpret this — together with the Iranian proposal — as both Tehran and Washington looking to draw China, which has largely sought to remain on the sidelines since hostilities began, into mediating the dispute.

With Washington now assembling a “convoy coalition” for the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese shipowners are unlikely to risk entering the conflict zone until the situation clarifies, said an executive from another large Chinese state-owned shipping firm.

Red Sea pivot

In the meantime, many Chinese-owned very large crude carriers in the Middle East have redirected to alternative markets, particularly the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data shows some 50 VLCCs currently gathered in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, of which 17 are owned by Cosco Shipping and China Merchants. Among these 17 vessels, 10 have AIS destinations showing Yanbu, three have already loaded cargo there and are returning to China, and the remaining four are displaying “for orders” status while heading for the Red Sea.

This pivot has helped support share prices of the listed tanker subsidiaries of both state-owned giants in Shanghai and Hong Kong, according to Yan Hai, an analyst at SWS Research.

“This shows that Cosco and China Merchants’ tankers have not been idled by the Hormuz closure, meaning their earnings are secured,” Yan said.