CRUDE exports from the Saudi Arabian port of Yanbu in the Red Sea continue to surge. The more important Yanbu becomes to global crude supply — and very large crude carrier demand — the more damaging a war-driven disruption to Red Sea trade would be.

Last week, crude exported from Yanbu accounted for almost a third of all VLCC loadings worldwide, according to data from Vortexa.

The concern is that as Yanbu grows more important, US military action against Iran could spur retaliation that prevents or dissuades tanker operators from transiting the Bab el Mandeb strait.

Yemen’s Houthis have been quiet, so far, during the war with Iran. Numerous commentators — including those of the Wall Street Journal and Foreign Policy — maintain that the Houthis do not have incentive to join the fight.

That could change if US President Donald Trump takes more aggressive military action.

Houthis comment on Yanbu trade

Lloyd’s List asked the Houthi entity that manages Red Sea navigation, the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center, about the large number of tankers loading Saudi crude in Yanbu and crossing back and forth through the Bab el Mandeb.

Lloyd’s List asked whether this Saudi crude trade will be allowed to continue indefinitely, or if there is a possibility that the Houthis would move to halt it.

“There is no cause for concern in this regard, and at present there is no reason to prevent this trade from continuing,” said HOCC in a response received on Thursday morning.

“As you can see, dozens of vessels, including oil tankers, transit the Bab el Mandeb strait every day. In this context, the Republic of Yemen remains committed to safeguarding navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb strait, as well as ensuring the free flow of trade.”

Trump said on March 20 that the US would bomb Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened by Monday night. He then pushed that ultimatum back five days. Since Monday, the US has touted negotiations and submitted a peace proposal. Iran rejected the US plan and issued its own demands, including a requirement for reparations.

“They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!” Trump wrote on Truth Social early on Thursday. A few hours later, he backtracked, delaying the date for “Energy Plant destruction” from Friday until the night of April 6.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Tasmin News Agency quoted an Iranian military official who specifically warned about the Bab el Mandeb.

“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, we will open other fronts as a surprise for him so that his action will not only not benefit him but will also double his costs,” said the military official.

“The Bab el Mandeb is considered one of the strategic straits in the world, and Iran has both the will and the possibility to produce a completely credible threat against it,” he said.

On Thursday, Reuters quoted a Houthi official as stating: “We stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour, they are left to leadership and we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move.”

Shift to Yanbu since Hormuz closure

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz dramatically elevates the importance of Yanbu, which is fed by Saudi Aramco’s East-West Pipeline. The pipeline has capacity of 7m barrels per day and the port has a loading capacity of around 4.5m bpd.

Saudi Aramco has rapidly shifted exports to Yanbu from its ports inside the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data from Vortexa, Yanbu loaded 4.1m bpd of crude and condensate in the week ending March 22, more than triple the full-year 2025 average of 1.3m bpd. Last week’s volume in Yanbu was up 32% from the week before.

There were 33 VLCCs offshore of Yanbu or at the berths on Thursday, according to ship-position data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Seasearcher.

The closure of the Strait of the Hormuz has already left the global market short of crude, so any disruption to flows from Yanbu would have an outsized effect on both oil markets and VLCC demand.

Global exports of seaborne crude and condensate averaged 51m bpd in full-year 2025, and Yanbu accounted for just 2% of the total, according to Vortexa data.

In the week ending March 22, global export volumes were down to 39m bpd due to the Hormuz closure. Yanbu’s share of the world total had jumped to 11%.

Exposure to Yanbu is even more extreme for VLCCs.

Yanbu accounted for 5% of global crude loaded on VLCCs in 2025. In contrast, Yanbu accounted for 20% of global VLCC volumes in the week ending March 15, and 31% in the week ending March 22.

Yanbu has swiftly gone from a backwater of the VLCC market to a pillar. With Hormuz closed, VLCC operators ballasting from Asia have two main options: go through the Bab el Mandeb to Yanbu or around the Cape of Good Hope to the Atlantic basin.

If the Bab el Mandeb is ever closed in retaliation for future US military action, VLCCs already in the Red Sea could reroute. They could head north, unload a portion of the cargo at the Sumed pipeline in Egypt, transit the Suez Canal and pay the toll, top off in the Mediterranean, then circumnavigate Africa to reach buyers in India and China.

Ballast VLCCs from Asia would have to go all the way around Africa in the other direction and cross the Mediterranean to get to Yanbu to load. The much greater voyage distances in both directions would render the trade considerably less attractive.

Furthermore, using the much longer route via the Suez Canal to avert the Bab el Mandeb wouldn’t necessarily protect tankers loading crude in Yanbu. The Houthis and the Iranians have both displayed the ability to reach targets there.

The Houthis targeted the chemical tanker Scarlet Ray (IMO: 9799654) with a ballistic missile on August 31, 2025, 40 nm off Yanbu. The missile missed and there was no damage, according to the vessel’s owner, Eastern Pacific.

Iran struck Yanbu’s Samref refinery with a drone on March 19, and fired a missile at the Yanbu port, which was intercepted.