THE concept of parallel fleets has been talked about for years: different ships for different routes and a splintering of seaborne flows as geopolitics shapes global trade.

The war with Iran could take the parallel-fleet trend to a whole new level.

The Tehran “toll booth” would pick winners and losers, granting Strait of Hormuz access to ships serving “friendly” countries, and blocking others. One of Iran’s demands to end the war is recognition of its sovereign right over the strait.

The toll booth has yet another fleet-bifurcation effect.

As long as the US designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, toll payments, which need to be made in yuan, create US sanctions and criminal prosecution risk.

This is the kind of business that appeals to the shadow fleet, not compliant owners.

One could argue that “the world” will not allow the Tehran toll booth to persist, and that the US military will intervene. The counter-argument is: current events in Iran have not followed the predicted course, so don’t be too sure.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a black swan. It has long been a topic of conversation at shipping forums and on listed shipowner quarterly calls.

No one predicted it would last more than a few days, because “the world” could not afford for it to be shut any longer. The strait has been effectively closed for almost a month now, with no end in sight.

No one predicted that Iranian oil exports would keep flowing if Iran closed the strait to others. Not only are they still flowing, they are doing so with America’s blessing.

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz plan is effectively a sanction, in this case, a sanction based on geography. Iran is using ship attacks to enforce compliance, just as the Houthis did before them in the Red Sea, and the Ukrainians continue to do, targeting Russian exports.

The US enforces sanctions based on access to the US dollar system. US sanctions, more than anything else, are responsible for the creation of shipping’s parallel fleets.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is just the latest and most economically damaging example of an existing trend: vessels and their cargoes are being increasingly used as chess pieces in a global and progressively more contentious game.

The concept of hyper-efficient seaborne trade — all ships with access to all ports, all cargoes flowing to the highest-paying buyer regardless of nationality — is a relic of the past. It has been in the dustbin of history for a while now.

The question ahead for shipping is how splintered and inefficient seaborne trade will become. 

Declan Bush
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List 

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