A MODEST uptick in non‑Iranian trade through the Strait of Hormuz is lifting overall transit numbers, but analysts caution that the situation could quickly change.

An estimated 48 cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt transited the besieged chokepoint last week, up from 34 the week before.

Despite the uptick, however, transit levels remain over 90% below normal levels.

The share of transits by vessels that are not linked to Iran, either through trade or ownership, rose to 21%.

Saturday saw double-digit transits for the first time since March 23, including two India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers and one Greek-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged aframax chartered by the Pakistan National Shipping Corp.

Iranian-linked trade dominated traffic in the week prior (March 16-22), accounting for 97% of all activity. All non-Iranian related traffic sailed eastbound to exit the Middle East Gulf.

Dirk Siebels, senior analyst at Risk Intelligence, says the relative increase in non-Iran linked traffic is not entirely unexpected.

“Iran has pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, only that transits require Iranian approval,” Siebels said.

“Despite the ongoing war, this seems to have become a bit more of a settled process, although any progress is obviously very slow.”

All traceable transits through the Strait of Hormuz since March 16 were taken via the so-called Tehran toll booth, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-dictated detour that goes around Iran’s Larak Island and well into the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters.

At least in two cases, payments are understood to have been made to the IRGC, and Iranian lawmakers are reportedly in the process of enacting a formal tolling scheme for transits through the strait.

Despite widespread use of the Larak Island detour, there is evidence that the corridor is not operating seamlessly.

Last week Lloyd’s List tracked four vessels that reversed course while heading to the Tehran toll booth.

This includes two Cosco Shipping-operated ultra-large containerships, CSCL Indian Ocean (IMO: 9695157) and CSCL Arctic Ocean (IMO: 9695169), which successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on their second attempt earlier today.

Lloyd’s List has tracked 43 dark transits through the chokepoint since the Larak route was opened.

It is difficult to know precisely the date of transit and route sailed for these vessels as their Automatic Identification System data is disabled.

Two Dynacom-owned tankers, for example, have recently re-emerged on AIS trackers after long periods without transmission.

The latest is the suezmax Pola (IMO: 9493767), which re-enabled AIS around midnight on Sunday (March 29) between Sri Lanka and the Nicobar Islands. The Liberia-flagged vessel entered the Middle East Gulf in early March, after the war had broken out.

Another Dynacom suezmax, Marathi (IMO: 9772357), re-emerged last week off India.

While Strait of Hormuz traffic has made small gains over the last week, analysts warn that the situation could change abruptly.

“Any US ground operation significantly increases the possibility that this all comes to a halt — either because Iran snaps this route shut again to further ramp up the economic pressure, or because of military activity in and around the strait, or both,” said Arran Kennedy, associate analyst at Control Risks.

Confusion over Pakistani tankers

On Saturday (March 28), Pakistan Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said Iran had “agreed to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag” to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and that two ships will “cross the strait” daily.

The announcement, made on social media platform X, was shared by US President Donald Trump on TruthSocial.

However, there are just 13 Pakistan-flagged vessels of over 10,000 dwt, including eight tankers and five bulk carriers, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.

Only two Pakistan-flagged ships have been tracked transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks — one aframax on March 15 and one bulker on Saturday.

Lloyd’s List approached Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, Embassy in the US, and the Ministry of Maritime Affairs for comment over the weekend.

All Strait of Hormuz transits are verified by Lloyd’s List Intelligence expert analysts using our AIS vessel tracking data, advanced analytics, and on-the-ground human intelligence to ensure even dark or GNSS-disrupted movements are captured. Lloyd’s List Intelligence subscribers can activate the Strait of Hormuz transit watchlist here