Brief Gulf shutdown manageable, but year‑long closure would upend global LNG flows, says think tank
- Closure of Strait of Hormuz of a year or longer is possible even if official hostilities cease
- Gas prices could hit $21 per mmbtu if shutdown lasts until 4Q26, or $34 per mmbtu if it lasts 12 months
- Global LNG export capacity could take until 2028 to make up for Middle East Gulf losses
Longer shutdowns of Qatari and UAE LNG would have markedly different effects on global gas markets, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies