GEOPOLITICAL turmoil has rapidly reshaped the risk landscape in critical energy markets, creating the opportunity for risk-tolerant shadow fleet* tankers to revert to compliant trades, reported senior risk and compliance analyst, Bridget Diakun.

Since the start of the year, Lloyd’s List has tracked four non-sanctioned members of Venezuela, Russia and Iran’s shadow fleets that have altered their operations to lift oil legitimately from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Guinea-Bissau-flagged suezmax Skage (IMO: 9194995) returned to the Caribbean Sea in early February, just days after the US issued general licences putting Venezuelan oil back on the mainstream market.

More than 600 vessels still stuck in Middle East Gulf

Clearing the more than 600 vessels trapped inside the Middle East Gulf is likely to take several weeks, even if traffic volumes increase towards pre-conflict levels, wrote senior reporters Ece Göksedef and Joshua Minchin.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, 600 cargo vessels of more than 10,000 dwt are trapped in the MEG, with 325 of those tankers.

Of those 325, some 154 are laden, 43 are sanctioned and 81 are part of the shadow fleet*.

Hormuz uncertainty reigns as tolls, transit schemes and security remain in flux

Two days into a two-week ceasefire that promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic had decreased from the previous trickle of tonnage and contradictory political statements have left the industry paralysed by uncertainty, reported editor-in-chief Richard Meade and maritime risk analyst Tomer Raanan.

Just three ships over 10,000 dwt, two of which were linked to Iran, had transited on Thursday morning as Tehran sought to consolidate its control of the critical energy chokepoint by imposing a new transit scheme.

A further three Iran-linked vessels, including one sanctioned very large crude carrier, were seen on ship-tracking data transiting the strait on Thursday last week.

Hormuz crisis spurs surge in Panama Canal tanker transits

Global shipping flows are connected. What happens on one side of the world reverberates across the other. It should come as no surprise that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is heavily affecting traffic at another chokepoint: the Panama Canal, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

According to data from the Panama Canal Authority, the waterway handled 1,148 ship transits in March, the highest monthly total since December 2021, during the pandemic boom.

An average of 37 vessels crossed the isthmus per day last month, exceeding the ACP’s 36 daily reservation slots.

Iranian activity drives increase in Strait of Hormuz traffic

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has climbed to its highest level since the conflict began, but most of that growth is still being driven by Iran-linked trade, and transits remain far below normal levels, reported Bridget Diakun, Tomer Raanan and Richard Meade.

Lloyd’s List tracked 72 transits of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt through the chokepoint last week, representing a 26% week-on-week increase in traffic.

Traffic volumes overall, however, are still down more than 90% compared to pre-war levels.

All Strait of Hormuz transits are verified by Lloyd’s List Intelligence expert analysts using our AIS vessel-tracking data, advanced analytics and on-the-ground human intelligence to ensure even dark or GNSS-disrupted movements are captured. Lloyd’s List Intelligence subscribers can activate the Strait of Hormuz transit watchlist here