Risk to boxship demand rises ‘with every day’ Hormuz remains closed
- Drewry projects global port throughput growth of only 1.8% this year vs 6.2% in 2025. If the strait stays closed, 2026 throughput growth could sink to just 0.5%-1.3%
- Strait closure, coming on the heels of Red Sea crisis, could convince liner operators to size fleets for ‘geopolitical perma-disruption’
- IMF has cut 2026 global GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.1% due to war, and sees ‘adverse scenario’ with just 2.5% GDP growth as increasingly likely
The longer the Strait of Hormuz is shuttered, the greater the risk that economic fallout will curb container shipping demand and constrained oil supply will spur bunker shortages