MANY shipping leaders descending upon Singapore this week will have boarded their flights with the optimistic words of US President Donald Trump ringing in their ears.

The Strait of Hormuz is “completely open and ready for business” he said on Friday, echoing the words of Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi who had separately declared the conduit “completely open”.

By the time they had landed, shots had been fired, the exodus of tankers than never was had ended in dozens of U-turns and Trump was once again threatening to strike civilian infrastructure if Tehran doesn’t agree to a deal.

How open the strait really is, and how long it stays that way, will inevitably focus minds at Singapore Maritime Week, but it is not only Hormuz that is now of concern.

A week of discussions inside the Malacca Strait — the primary conduit for Asia’s manufacturing and energy supply chains — should serve as a timely reminder that what happens in Hormuz does not necessarily stay in Hormuz.

Allowing any party to illegally weaponise an international waterway will set a dangerous precedent, and other maritime chokepoints could be similarly targeted, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned international governments as they gathered to discuss the Hormuz crisis.

Those governments, who are still talking about what the defensive multinational mission for Hormuz post-conflict should look like, are just as aware as Wong that Malacca is more than five times longer than the Strait of Hormuz, providing ample scope for disruption.

“The future will be determined by the ability to protect commerce and territory and resources that are core to national security,” Trump noted back in January.

The rest of the world is finally understanding what he was talking about and are nervously eyeing up the strategic shift in alliances and naval force that will be required to keep other global maritime chokepoints open.

Noting that the right of transit passage is enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Singapore’s Wong has reminded fellow leaders it is in the collective interest of the international community to uphold navigational rights and freedoms, and to ensure that critical sea lanes remain open, secure and accessible to all.

That’s a message that will go down well this week with the shipping industry. But as they collectively sit on the sidelines waiting to be told whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed, there will be questions about how much agency they really have here.

Understanding that seaborne trade has been weaponised and that the new world order of protectionism and self-sufficiency does not bode well for the freedom of the sea, is not the same as being able to do much about it.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List